So You Think You Know Volume?
You can see from the chart below that it is possible to hit the right trades. You can do this consistently if you take the time to learn how to read a chart. Not in the way in which you think or likely have been taught by the so called specialists but rather the way that the market makers see it. You have to look at every position as a possible set up. As a stop hunt to your position. After all why else are these liquidity providers letting you into the market. They just feel like giving you money?
Of course you know that they are not. They provide liquidity so that they can figure out where best to move the market so that they can maximize profits, not for you, but for themselves. It's a good gig, trust me I know. It is a system that almost never fails them. One they can count on day after day, week after week and until the markets are no more if that ever happens.
You won't always be right anyway even if you can figure out how to put yourself on their side simply for the reason that they are not always right either. They make mistakes and they sometimes give out more than they want to, like in the 2008 financial crisis for example. Do you think they wanted to pay out to these geniuses that supposedly saw the crash coming?
Of course not. That is not why they are in the business.
That was not the hardest trade in the world to see either. Before the Fed and the rest of the central banks started manipulating the markets that particular trade was as obvious as the sun rises every day. You didn't even have to worry that much about your timing because you knew given enough time the market would do to people what it always has. Give them what they deserve.
However since that time it is anything but easy to spot anomalies in fundamentals or technical analysis. For example if you bet on stocks to fall over the last few years you would have blown out your account a few times over. I still listen to the same shacko babble coming from the same talking heads each day that we are due for a crash. Well be my guest trying to time that one. Ask any hedge fund manager how that is working for them lately. Ask them how easy it is to time any market these days with the low volatility. The index is at all time lows and funds are at short extremes. Huge short positions exist on the VIX.
I am not saying that volatility will return to the markets the way it used to be any time soon because for that to happen central banks would have to leave the markets. I am sorry to say they are here to stay. So get used to it. Now for me as a small investor it is a screaming buy. Not because volatility is going to return any time soon but rather there is a lot of money to be made to spike it if even for a very short period of time. Like when everyone was long the EUR/CHF in 2014 believing foolishly that the Swiss Central Bank had their back. That is what this trade is like at the moment.
I would tell you to take the trade not because of the chance to make a fortune but rather downside is very limited if you are wrong while the upside is incredible.
Do I think it will happen?
Yep, at some point over the next six to eight months you bet your booty I do. This is the type of trade that makes the LP's salivate and plan the event. It is simply too lucrative to ignore. It is simply a giant bubble like Bonds. At some point it will pop. However Bonds I would not bet on. Too risky even thought it seems like a no brainer.
Getting back to the chart below. I picked this level not because it looked pretty but because it made sense in every way. Once the stops were run to the bottom there would likely be no where else to go but up. Sure enough it happened. One of the things I teach you is to see the stop hunt area. You can bet your boots that price will gravitate there sure as the sun rises every day. Once the shorts or longs are cleared the market seeks a balance level where shorts and longs can begin the process all over again. Join me in the room soon. Keep watching and I will share a link in the coming days.
Of course you know that they are not. They provide liquidity so that they can figure out where best to move the market so that they can maximize profits, not for you, but for themselves. It's a good gig, trust me I know. It is a system that almost never fails them. One they can count on day after day, week after week and until the markets are no more if that ever happens.
You won't always be right anyway even if you can figure out how to put yourself on their side simply for the reason that they are not always right either. They make mistakes and they sometimes give out more than they want to, like in the 2008 financial crisis for example. Do you think they wanted to pay out to these geniuses that supposedly saw the crash coming?
Of course not. That is not why they are in the business.
That was not the hardest trade in the world to see either. Before the Fed and the rest of the central banks started manipulating the markets that particular trade was as obvious as the sun rises every day. You didn't even have to worry that much about your timing because you knew given enough time the market would do to people what it always has. Give them what they deserve.
However since that time it is anything but easy to spot anomalies in fundamentals or technical analysis. For example if you bet on stocks to fall over the last few years you would have blown out your account a few times over. I still listen to the same shacko babble coming from the same talking heads each day that we are due for a crash. Well be my guest trying to time that one. Ask any hedge fund manager how that is working for them lately. Ask them how easy it is to time any market these days with the low volatility. The index is at all time lows and funds are at short extremes. Huge short positions exist on the VIX.
I am not saying that volatility will return to the markets the way it used to be any time soon because for that to happen central banks would have to leave the markets. I am sorry to say they are here to stay. So get used to it. Now for me as a small investor it is a screaming buy. Not because volatility is going to return any time soon but rather there is a lot of money to be made to spike it if even for a very short period of time. Like when everyone was long the EUR/CHF in 2014 believing foolishly that the Swiss Central Bank had their back. That is what this trade is like at the moment.
I would tell you to take the trade not because of the chance to make a fortune but rather downside is very limited if you are wrong while the upside is incredible.
Do I think it will happen?
Yep, at some point over the next six to eight months you bet your booty I do. This is the type of trade that makes the LP's salivate and plan the event. It is simply too lucrative to ignore. It is simply a giant bubble like Bonds. At some point it will pop. However Bonds I would not bet on. Too risky even thought it seems like a no brainer.
Getting back to the chart below. I picked this level not because it looked pretty but because it made sense in every way. Once the stops were run to the bottom there would likely be no where else to go but up. Sure enough it happened. One of the things I teach you is to see the stop hunt area. You can bet your boots that price will gravitate there sure as the sun rises every day. Once the shorts or longs are cleared the market seeks a balance level where shorts and longs can begin the process all over again. Join me in the room soon. Keep watching and I will share a link in the coming days.
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