Trading Conditions....When Should You Trade?
There are a lot of day trading rooms aren't there? Thousands to be exact. Most are nothing more than a way to get YOU to part with your hard earned money. I really don't know the percentage that are good or bad. However statistics still speak for themselves don't they?
Those statistics state clearly and without prejudice that the vast majority of traders lose money and eventually all their capital over time. Sure there are lots of algos and robots too that claim to put millions in your bank account but well....I am sure you are already aware of how that works. You have heard me mention dozens of times that what worked well for one person may or may not work for the other. Especially when a large number of traders are trading on one call. This allows the big guys to get in and out of their own positions with a profit and nothing more. It helps only those who are able to out big or out call you. It is really that simple.
There are only really two people in the industry that I trust with any sort of consistency and that is Rick Ackerman and Simon Jouseff. That is it. Period other than myself.
I only trust myself because I have taken a long time to work out what does work and what does not over a period of time measured in years. I also have made a lot of mistakes along the way too. Anyone saying that they haven't is generally not leveling with you. Competition is simply too fierce not to have bad months or even years.
In futures you are taught to trade on market noise using 3 minute charts, tick tape reading, order flow and all that other stuff that is supposed to give you an edge. In truth it really doesn't. Like I told you you can't know when some large transaction is going to take place on the market or when the market makers are going to add or subtract orders. They have this information and you don't. They are the ones allowing you into the market. They don't always run you because the market conditions don't dictate. In other words they look for the biggest opportunities just like you.
When you look at the 30 minute chart below I have outlined in blue rectangles the times that it is probably not wise to trade. With anemic 50 tick ranges it is simply asking for trouble. There really is no movement at all. Just simple market noise. Now the only time you may have taken a small position is when you see the 1-2 dollar move strait up.
So how do you know when this is likely to occur?
I teach you to define areas. Not lines in the sand but areas where the market should move from and to. These areas usually are in the direction of the overall trend and they are at key areas where stops have already been run and price is likely to retrace or reverse. I teach you how to spot them ahead of time so that you will know which areas hold the most promise for possible big moves. The point to note is that patience is your best friend which is really not how our brains are wired. We want some sort of immediate feedback be it good or bad in order to feel that we are doing something. This goes back to the days when we were in the caves and constantly looking for immediate stimulus to determine a course of action. It is very deadly in trading or gambling of any sort. Simply put it is your fight or flight mechanism kicking in whether you like it or not. You can't stop it so why try.
You can see that since we hit around the 60 dollar a barrel area in WTI oil there hasn't really been any action at all. Yep there are opportunities but clearly there are not any trades that won't get you likely stopped out. Hence you haven't heard me call a swing in quite some time. I am still looking short as I told you a while ago but I haven't really found it yet. Since the 55 area it is simply a hickup action which is what I expected.
These patterns are there for you in all financial instruments. These hints are there for you to see if you choose to see them. If you don't learn this then you run the risk of becoming a casualty. Ok stay tuned and I will keep sending you some good trades in a variety of instruments that I am looking at. Cheers!
Those statistics state clearly and without prejudice that the vast majority of traders lose money and eventually all their capital over time. Sure there are lots of algos and robots too that claim to put millions in your bank account but well....I am sure you are already aware of how that works. You have heard me mention dozens of times that what worked well for one person may or may not work for the other. Especially when a large number of traders are trading on one call. This allows the big guys to get in and out of their own positions with a profit and nothing more. It helps only those who are able to out big or out call you. It is really that simple.
There are only really two people in the industry that I trust with any sort of consistency and that is Rick Ackerman and Simon Jouseff. That is it. Period other than myself.
I only trust myself because I have taken a long time to work out what does work and what does not over a period of time measured in years. I also have made a lot of mistakes along the way too. Anyone saying that they haven't is generally not leveling with you. Competition is simply too fierce not to have bad months or even years.
In futures you are taught to trade on market noise using 3 minute charts, tick tape reading, order flow and all that other stuff that is supposed to give you an edge. In truth it really doesn't. Like I told you you can't know when some large transaction is going to take place on the market or when the market makers are going to add or subtract orders. They have this information and you don't. They are the ones allowing you into the market. They don't always run you because the market conditions don't dictate. In other words they look for the biggest opportunities just like you.
When you look at the 30 minute chart below I have outlined in blue rectangles the times that it is probably not wise to trade. With anemic 50 tick ranges it is simply asking for trouble. There really is no movement at all. Just simple market noise. Now the only time you may have taken a small position is when you see the 1-2 dollar move strait up.
So how do you know when this is likely to occur?
I teach you to define areas. Not lines in the sand but areas where the market should move from and to. These areas usually are in the direction of the overall trend and they are at key areas where stops have already been run and price is likely to retrace or reverse. I teach you how to spot them ahead of time so that you will know which areas hold the most promise for possible big moves. The point to note is that patience is your best friend which is really not how our brains are wired. We want some sort of immediate feedback be it good or bad in order to feel that we are doing something. This goes back to the days when we were in the caves and constantly looking for immediate stimulus to determine a course of action. It is very deadly in trading or gambling of any sort. Simply put it is your fight or flight mechanism kicking in whether you like it or not. You can't stop it so why try.
You can see that since we hit around the 60 dollar a barrel area in WTI oil there hasn't really been any action at all. Yep there are opportunities but clearly there are not any trades that won't get you likely stopped out. Hence you haven't heard me call a swing in quite some time. I am still looking short as I told you a while ago but I haven't really found it yet. Since the 55 area it is simply a hickup action which is what I expected.
These patterns are there for you in all financial instruments. These hints are there for you to see if you choose to see them. If you don't learn this then you run the risk of becoming a casualty. Ok stay tuned and I will keep sending you some good trades in a variety of instruments that I am looking at. Cheers!
No comments:
Post a Comment