Ah The Dollar Falls....
Well, as predicted the Dollar has begun to sell-off. You know it is so funny how you hear it from all the "know it all's NOW all crowing about "how they all saw this coming".
Sorry, but I didn't hear very much from any one of them when it really was a factor. Like when Bonds started their run lower from the predetermined area that I identified for the Fed to reverse things in this sideways market and yes it is a sideways market.
All you have to do is look at my Dollar index chart below to see that it has been sideways to up for a long time. Not in a bullish mode and not in a bearish mode but rather in a sideways mode ratcheting ever so slowly higher until it gets to the uncomfortable area where the Fed says (not out loud) "ok its time to turn it to sideways down for a few months to years. That is where we are at now.
It is not that the Fed is losing control or central banks are running out of things to do (as most would have you believe) but rather it is the tipping point. The same one I identified in Bonds, Oil, Silver, Gold, Bitcoin and a host of other markets. Sideways means there is a range ok. It doesn't stop in the same area all the time. It can't or it becomes too predictable. Stops need to be taken out too so it goes a little higher than most think and a little lower than most figure.
However, if you don't use too much leverage it works for you. You can see the double position I have in the index and of course my calls in the EUR/USD pair.
Gold is hovering at 1465 at the moment and looks to be ready to ratchet a little higher. If a bull market in Gold is returning it isn't because of the Dollar or anything else. It is likely a cause of Tariffs that are harming the US economy along with the rest of the world. This is the one thing that Trump has done that is truly dumb. Very dumb actually. This is what will bring the house of cards tumbling down if anything. The cost of higher-priced goods in a debt riddled society is not good. You are just beginning to feel the effect of that now. It will get worse. I have said this for many months that when you are living paycheck to paycheck the last thing you need is the cost of living to increase. It obviously has. This is what will bring it down if it does. Not the money printing and not the QE. This is the area of weakness and Trump has walked right into it like a lobster in a trap. You see it won't harm the Chinese that much. It will at first but when they stop buying debt and sending cheap goods who is going to replace that? Canada? UK?, EU?
No none of the developed countries are going to be able to fill that gap because their labor rates are far too high. Is China worried about food shortages?
No not likely. With the way technology is going they will produce their own or buy from another large exporter of food, like Brazil. Trump is all about real estate and the deals you get there. He is not steeped in getting the best of a parasitical country like China who rarely if ever keeps their word. This is a lose-lose situation for the US. It is their standard of living that is on the line not China's.
You think their is shootings now. Just wait until the pain gets worse in the USA. Only recently have the Chinese tasted a higher standard of living. The US is very dependent on it like heroin. Cheap money and lots of credit so that everyone can live way beyond their means. In one sense it is a reckoning. One that is probably way overdue. One that comes to you when you least expect it to. China has trillions in reserves that they can use to start relations with any country they want. When you are a large debtor it is not so easy. Trump should be welcoming any trade with China. Not chasing it away. It would take decades to turn everything around so that the US could become a net creditor again and that is time that you don't have when you have a populace that is hooked on easy credit. I wish him luck though and I hope that I am wrong. In the interim that is why I still have my positions in Gold, Silver, US Dollar, Bitcoin, and the Euro. Cheers.
Sorry, but I didn't hear very much from any one of them when it really was a factor. Like when Bonds started their run lower from the predetermined area that I identified for the Fed to reverse things in this sideways market and yes it is a sideways market.
All you have to do is look at my Dollar index chart below to see that it has been sideways to up for a long time. Not in a bullish mode and not in a bearish mode but rather in a sideways mode ratcheting ever so slowly higher until it gets to the uncomfortable area where the Fed says (not out loud) "ok its time to turn it to sideways down for a few months to years. That is where we are at now.
It is not that the Fed is losing control or central banks are running out of things to do (as most would have you believe) but rather it is the tipping point. The same one I identified in Bonds, Oil, Silver, Gold, Bitcoin and a host of other markets. Sideways means there is a range ok. It doesn't stop in the same area all the time. It can't or it becomes too predictable. Stops need to be taken out too so it goes a little higher than most think and a little lower than most figure.
However, if you don't use too much leverage it works for you. You can see the double position I have in the index and of course my calls in the EUR/USD pair.
Gold is hovering at 1465 at the moment and looks to be ready to ratchet a little higher. If a bull market in Gold is returning it isn't because of the Dollar or anything else. It is likely a cause of Tariffs that are harming the US economy along with the rest of the world. This is the one thing that Trump has done that is truly dumb. Very dumb actually. This is what will bring the house of cards tumbling down if anything. The cost of higher-priced goods in a debt riddled society is not good. You are just beginning to feel the effect of that now. It will get worse. I have said this for many months that when you are living paycheck to paycheck the last thing you need is the cost of living to increase. It obviously has. This is what will bring it down if it does. Not the money printing and not the QE. This is the area of weakness and Trump has walked right into it like a lobster in a trap. You see it won't harm the Chinese that much. It will at first but when they stop buying debt and sending cheap goods who is going to replace that? Canada? UK?, EU?
No none of the developed countries are going to be able to fill that gap because their labor rates are far too high. Is China worried about food shortages?
No not likely. With the way technology is going they will produce their own or buy from another large exporter of food, like Brazil. Trump is all about real estate and the deals you get there. He is not steeped in getting the best of a parasitical country like China who rarely if ever keeps their word. This is a lose-lose situation for the US. It is their standard of living that is on the line not China's.
You think their is shootings now. Just wait until the pain gets worse in the USA. Only recently have the Chinese tasted a higher standard of living. The US is very dependent on it like heroin. Cheap money and lots of credit so that everyone can live way beyond their means. In one sense it is a reckoning. One that is probably way overdue. One that comes to you when you least expect it to. China has trillions in reserves that they can use to start relations with any country they want. When you are a large debtor it is not so easy. Trump should be welcoming any trade with China. Not chasing it away. It would take decades to turn everything around so that the US could become a net creditor again and that is time that you don't have when you have a populace that is hooked on easy credit. I wish him luck though and I hope that I am wrong. In the interim that is why I still have my positions in Gold, Silver, US Dollar, Bitcoin, and the Euro. Cheers.
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