December Market Action....
Well as the holiday season nears we won't see anything spectacular in the markets. The Stock indexes will continue their small gyrations devoid of any volatility while perhaps moving slightly higher. The bears are going to have to wait until the new year to see any sort of correction (if it ever comes).
Oil will continue to move around in this area between 55-60 dollars a barrel and most of the other markets won't do too much else. The long anticipated rate raise will likely take place in December and I suspect it will be based around Yellen's fear of rising inflation. Not that the slight uptick in interest rates will have any sort of profound effect on anything except debt but it will give the impression that central banks are being responsible if you can call such a thing responsible.
The structural problems of most of the developed world are unlikely to change in any way. Consumers will continue their debt binge reaching ever high levels of insanity and asset bubbles will continue.
One might question whether or not inflation is out of the barrel at the moment. I warned you about this back about four month to six months ago when I said that it definitely was. Not in the sense that you are going to be looking at hyper inflationary forces but it was certainly present in some areas making stagflation more of a scenario in the tug of war between deflationary natural forces and the forces of inflationary pressure unleashed by central banks.
With food prices being the major area where I look for inflation I found them long ago here in certain areas. Beef continues to be ridiculously inflationary along with some other areas of food that most people consume. Gas here in Canada and some other areas of the world are causing some concern but with the price of a barrel of oil being maintained where it is it shouldn't be the catalyst that bursts the bubble.
My only concern is household debt. People have been ever increasingly borrowing from their rising assets and especially their homes. This is not because they are looking to add to their assets but rather to keep from going broke. This is a problem. One that will eventually come home to roost (excuse the pun) as people will eventually hit the wall where they can no longer finance their party. It is not really their fault. This was the hand they were dealt by central banks in their efforts to ward off deflationary pressures. The longer term effects which were known at the beginning are now beginning to be seen where the rich become far too rich and the middle class erodes. How this will change I have no idea. However it is a serious problem. I don't see how central banks are going to offset this. Any money given directly to people is going to cause more inflationary effects. The mind set of high risk has long since been established and this psychology will take a long time to dissolve.
When I look at College football games the overriding waste simply jumps out at you like a disease. High priced programs, high priced coaches, jobs for everyone and all on the students back. Taking programs that are not positioning anyone for the near or far future. It is simply incredible. Anyway I wish you well with the holidays coming up. I will keep you posted on new updates. Cheers!
Oil will continue to move around in this area between 55-60 dollars a barrel and most of the other markets won't do too much else. The long anticipated rate raise will likely take place in December and I suspect it will be based around Yellen's fear of rising inflation. Not that the slight uptick in interest rates will have any sort of profound effect on anything except debt but it will give the impression that central banks are being responsible if you can call such a thing responsible.
The structural problems of most of the developed world are unlikely to change in any way. Consumers will continue their debt binge reaching ever high levels of insanity and asset bubbles will continue.
One might question whether or not inflation is out of the barrel at the moment. I warned you about this back about four month to six months ago when I said that it definitely was. Not in the sense that you are going to be looking at hyper inflationary forces but it was certainly present in some areas making stagflation more of a scenario in the tug of war between deflationary natural forces and the forces of inflationary pressure unleashed by central banks.
With food prices being the major area where I look for inflation I found them long ago here in certain areas. Beef continues to be ridiculously inflationary along with some other areas of food that most people consume. Gas here in Canada and some other areas of the world are causing some concern but with the price of a barrel of oil being maintained where it is it shouldn't be the catalyst that bursts the bubble.
My only concern is household debt. People have been ever increasingly borrowing from their rising assets and especially their homes. This is not because they are looking to add to their assets but rather to keep from going broke. This is a problem. One that will eventually come home to roost (excuse the pun) as people will eventually hit the wall where they can no longer finance their party. It is not really their fault. This was the hand they were dealt by central banks in their efforts to ward off deflationary pressures. The longer term effects which were known at the beginning are now beginning to be seen where the rich become far too rich and the middle class erodes. How this will change I have no idea. However it is a serious problem. I don't see how central banks are going to offset this. Any money given directly to people is going to cause more inflationary effects. The mind set of high risk has long since been established and this psychology will take a long time to dissolve.
When I look at College football games the overriding waste simply jumps out at you like a disease. High priced programs, high priced coaches, jobs for everyone and all on the students back. Taking programs that are not positioning anyone for the near or far future. It is simply incredible. Anyway I wish you well with the holidays coming up. I will keep you posted on new updates. Cheers!
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