My Oil Position....
Well I told you that this was a good area to take a position for a long. As it turns out it is making a struggle to go higher. This is anything but new trend. There is no indication that this is the turning point at all. Especially in the longer term charts. I am hoping for a return to the 55 area or slightly beyond but I won't hold my breath with the price action looking like another plunge is in store.
You have to be able to identify when a likely turning point occurs. Price action resembles a V shaped moved. When ever you see an L shaped recovery there is likely more to the trend yet to occur. It means there is very little buying pressure.
I am up about 113 ticks but that could collapse at any moment so I won't hold my breath. This is simply that 1:1 play that I told you about. I used very little margin and a small position. I did this because I expect to be wrong. If I am right then it is the bonus. In other words I don't immediately expect price to hit my 55 target. It is a long swing from present levels.
From observations from the Monthly chart a swing to the 40.53 area would not be impossible before a true turn takes place. If you do observe the monthly chart which is very long term you will see the three ridge pattern. Two smaller ones and a larger one. This type of pattern usually returns price to the starting point when it is finished. It is also the 50% retrace from the monthly sell off of 2014. So there you have it. Long term the technicals around oil do not look good.
The monthly recovery was not V shaped like in 2009 but rather it was more L shaped which means that oil prices will not likely return to their previous highs any time soon. At least in my life time anyway. The sideways market dictates that it is being controlled. A spike to 300 dollars a barrel regardless of what happens in Iran or any of the OPEC countries is irrelevant so don't buy all the nonsense coming out of the media that states the market can't be controlled. It can and is.
Anyway cheers!
You have to be able to identify when a likely turning point occurs. Price action resembles a V shaped moved. When ever you see an L shaped recovery there is likely more to the trend yet to occur. It means there is very little buying pressure.
I am up about 113 ticks but that could collapse at any moment so I won't hold my breath. This is simply that 1:1 play that I told you about. I used very little margin and a small position. I did this because I expect to be wrong. If I am right then it is the bonus. In other words I don't immediately expect price to hit my 55 target. It is a long swing from present levels.
From observations from the Monthly chart a swing to the 40.53 area would not be impossible before a true turn takes place. If you do observe the monthly chart which is very long term you will see the three ridge pattern. Two smaller ones and a larger one. This type of pattern usually returns price to the starting point when it is finished. It is also the 50% retrace from the monthly sell off of 2014. So there you have it. Long term the technicals around oil do not look good.
The monthly recovery was not V shaped like in 2009 but rather it was more L shaped which means that oil prices will not likely return to their previous highs any time soon. At least in my life time anyway. The sideways market dictates that it is being controlled. A spike to 300 dollars a barrel regardless of what happens in Iran or any of the OPEC countries is irrelevant so don't buy all the nonsense coming out of the media that states the market can't be controlled. It can and is.
Anyway cheers!
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