Happy New Year To You All.
My take on the markets this year is pretty strait forward.
The Ten Year Notes are headed lower (futures) or higher (spot) and if you followed my lead you are looking at nice profits already on your position. Contrary to popular opinion these are not going to crash the markets any time soon which is precisely why they are headed in the opposite direction that most traders think that they are going. I tend to focus most heavily on the ten year notes as they are the most liquid in the markets. I am nicely in profits with my own position which you can see by looking back.
Oil will gyrate back and forth between the 55 and 40 level this year. Once again if you had bought at the bottom as I suggested that I was doing (go back and look at the post where I defined the range for you). If you had taken the position at the 41 level you could already be up six or seven dollars. I don't know too many pundits who call as close a game than I do around key turns in the markets. All you have to do is execute. If you are afraid then you shouldn't be trading.
There are those that say we are headed for another bull market in commodities. One that they think will be astronomical. Well if I am to believe that then I must also assume that the markets are going to finally break. That is what happened in 2008 when commodities became ridiculously expensive and grossly over priced. That was before the Fed and other central banks were controlling price. If you don't believe me give me another good reason why Oil is where it is at the moment. Why isn't it back up around 80 looking for further upside?
We may get a bit of a run in commodities. That is possible but an outright bull market ramp? Forget it. It won't be allowed to happen.
You see the Dollar is at a pivotal level. I do not think that it is going to move much higher. In fact I think that it has hit an area where it should stay sideways for a bit and then fall. In other words it is at or near the top of its range. If it begins to fall you may see gold rise a bit. You might see some commodities rise up but a bull market like the early 2000's. No! Not going to happen.
The Dollar could ramp higher. Let's be clear on this and if we ever get to the point of a market contraction it will indeed move higher. I don't yet hear enough crowing around how high the Dollar is getting yet for the true reversal to begin yet but I suspect that will come soon enough.
As for the Stock indexes it should be another year of moving sideways. I do not see the stocks racing off to another bull market. They are at inflation adjusted levels and people are feeling the wealth effect to a degree. I am essentially long the NASDAQ from its low areas. I expect a move back to the 7000's before too long. There is simply too much innovation going on to ignore technology.
As we move towards an even better quality of life thanks to the incredible innovation going on we can all give thanks that the perma bears have been totally wrong and will continue to be wrong for the foreseeable future. With central banks controlling the level of exposure that most investors have in the markets at some point the markets themselves will be a thing of the past. This likely won't happen for a decade or two at least but at some point we will move away from greed and fear.
In the mean time I will be here once again though the year to guide you in what I am doing. If you don't know about my blog on the EUR/USD Signal (that hasn't lost ever) then you may wish to follow it as it is a way to make 12-20% a year on your portfolio with very little risk. It is here at
https://tradingtheeu.blogspot.com/
Wishing you only the best.
The Ten Year Notes are headed lower (futures) or higher (spot) and if you followed my lead you are looking at nice profits already on your position. Contrary to popular opinion these are not going to crash the markets any time soon which is precisely why they are headed in the opposite direction that most traders think that they are going. I tend to focus most heavily on the ten year notes as they are the most liquid in the markets. I am nicely in profits with my own position which you can see by looking back.
Oil will gyrate back and forth between the 55 and 40 level this year. Once again if you had bought at the bottom as I suggested that I was doing (go back and look at the post where I defined the range for you). If you had taken the position at the 41 level you could already be up six or seven dollars. I don't know too many pundits who call as close a game than I do around key turns in the markets. All you have to do is execute. If you are afraid then you shouldn't be trading.
There are those that say we are headed for another bull market in commodities. One that they think will be astronomical. Well if I am to believe that then I must also assume that the markets are going to finally break. That is what happened in 2008 when commodities became ridiculously expensive and grossly over priced. That was before the Fed and other central banks were controlling price. If you don't believe me give me another good reason why Oil is where it is at the moment. Why isn't it back up around 80 looking for further upside?
We may get a bit of a run in commodities. That is possible but an outright bull market ramp? Forget it. It won't be allowed to happen.
You see the Dollar is at a pivotal level. I do not think that it is going to move much higher. In fact I think that it has hit an area where it should stay sideways for a bit and then fall. In other words it is at or near the top of its range. If it begins to fall you may see gold rise a bit. You might see some commodities rise up but a bull market like the early 2000's. No! Not going to happen.
The Dollar could ramp higher. Let's be clear on this and if we ever get to the point of a market contraction it will indeed move higher. I don't yet hear enough crowing around how high the Dollar is getting yet for the true reversal to begin yet but I suspect that will come soon enough.
As for the Stock indexes it should be another year of moving sideways. I do not see the stocks racing off to another bull market. They are at inflation adjusted levels and people are feeling the wealth effect to a degree. I am essentially long the NASDAQ from its low areas. I expect a move back to the 7000's before too long. There is simply too much innovation going on to ignore technology.
As we move towards an even better quality of life thanks to the incredible innovation going on we can all give thanks that the perma bears have been totally wrong and will continue to be wrong for the foreseeable future. With central banks controlling the level of exposure that most investors have in the markets at some point the markets themselves will be a thing of the past. This likely won't happen for a decade or two at least but at some point we will move away from greed and fear.
In the mean time I will be here once again though the year to guide you in what I am doing. If you don't know about my blog on the EUR/USD Signal (that hasn't lost ever) then you may wish to follow it as it is a way to make 12-20% a year on your portfolio with very little risk. It is here at
https://tradingtheeu.blogspot.com/
Wishing you only the best.
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