Order Flow and Its Fallacy....
I want to explain to you clearly how to use order flow and why in most cases it is misleading at best. I want you to take a very close look at the charts below.
I called the big move down ahead of time which is why I posted the chart on this page so you could see what I was looking for.
Now the question you likely have is, "What made that area so special and why did order flow stand here where it failed in other areas"?
These are good questions. Ones that deserve good answers.
The first part of the answer is, You must follow WTI which is the global chart. Much bigger than anything else. It will tell you in all probability what the pros are looking at.
This is what I did first. I saw the break of the daily high completing the shallow triangle of reversal that is presently making an appearance on the daily chart. Based on that the reversal should be heavy and hard. Note the time I published this blog and then check the times of the move down.
The other part of the equation is the fact that price broke above the previous high taking out the weak shorts. Once they are gone there is little to no ammunition for a move higher. In other words price will fall looking for balance. Contrary to popular opinion this is where the shorts grab hold of the market. If you are going to take a position on the futures market using foolish leverage than this is the area you may wish to try your counter trend short. Any other area makes little to no sense.
There has to be compelling reasons why you would enter against the trend. In this case the macro trend is sideways. However the shorter time frames clearly see an ending to an otherwise uneventful rise in price from the 40 area where I told you it was likely to head higher.
Patience will allow you to cherry pick your spots. You have to see the market for what it is. A trap for fools. The short term game is nothing else but this. If you see it the way everyone else does you will get the same results.
I posted before that Oil would fall from this area. It did indeed. Hard as I told you it would. This is the other fallacy of listening to the talking heads. Either they are too stupid yet to figure out that the markets are totally rigged or they are trying to get you to take positions so that they can provide the liquidity and go against you. Likely a combination of both.
You can see from the charts below that I put my money where my mouth is. Oil fell and bonds rose. I was in both and still am in bonds. Often times you will see order flow skewed to the downside or upside. It generally is only there for you to glimpse the illusion. Orders can be pulled and replaced at the last second or millisecond if you will.
You need to be looking for the longer trades to be able to do well in this market. I will try my very best to keep you on the right side of the markets. Cheers!
I called the big move down ahead of time which is why I posted the chart on this page so you could see what I was looking for.
Now the question you likely have is, "What made that area so special and why did order flow stand here where it failed in other areas"?
These are good questions. Ones that deserve good answers.
The first part of the answer is, You must follow WTI which is the global chart. Much bigger than anything else. It will tell you in all probability what the pros are looking at.
This is what I did first. I saw the break of the daily high completing the shallow triangle of reversal that is presently making an appearance on the daily chart. Based on that the reversal should be heavy and hard. Note the time I published this blog and then check the times of the move down.
The other part of the equation is the fact that price broke above the previous high taking out the weak shorts. Once they are gone there is little to no ammunition for a move higher. In other words price will fall looking for balance. Contrary to popular opinion this is where the shorts grab hold of the market. If you are going to take a position on the futures market using foolish leverage than this is the area you may wish to try your counter trend short. Any other area makes little to no sense.
There has to be compelling reasons why you would enter against the trend. In this case the macro trend is sideways. However the shorter time frames clearly see an ending to an otherwise uneventful rise in price from the 40 area where I told you it was likely to head higher.
Patience will allow you to cherry pick your spots. You have to see the market for what it is. A trap for fools. The short term game is nothing else but this. If you see it the way everyone else does you will get the same results.
I posted before that Oil would fall from this area. It did indeed. Hard as I told you it would. This is the other fallacy of listening to the talking heads. Either they are too stupid yet to figure out that the markets are totally rigged or they are trying to get you to take positions so that they can provide the liquidity and go against you. Likely a combination of both.
You can see from the charts below that I put my money where my mouth is. Oil fell and bonds rose. I was in both and still am in bonds. Often times you will see order flow skewed to the downside or upside. It generally is only there for you to glimpse the illusion. Orders can be pulled and replaced at the last second or millisecond if you will.
You need to be looking for the longer trades to be able to do well in this market. I will try my very best to keep you on the right side of the markets. Cheers!
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