This Week in the Markets, Feb 4, 2019
Alright as the markets loom for the week we need to see the big picture.
The question you want to ask is, "What is likely to happen from here"?
The easy answer is, "I don't know", because in all honesty no one ever really does.
It is still too early in the cycle to think of a big move in any direction so we need to assume that the markets are likely to move sideways for the forseeable future. That means at least another week or two.
There is no real extremes building in any markets so there is no reason to believe that any of them are going to do anything extraordinary. For those of you who have followed my thoughts for a while you generally know that my beliefs are correct. That is not to say that I am not wrong from time to time but my timing is usually good. As I said there is nothing to tell me at the moment that anyone is not happy with the markets being where they are which generally indicates what the central banks are likely to do. At the moment I don't think much.
If you hop on the band wagon of all the experts who see gold taking off on another bull ride or that gold is going to rise know this. The only way that is going to happen is if the Dollar falls hard. I mean hard. That is not likely to happen any time soon so how many times are you going to listen to the same drivel coming out of these guys mouths.
The truth is, they think that they know, but they don't.
As for myself it is a time to buy any major dips in the stock indexes and I will be watching the CRB for any indication that it might be bottoming. So far there is no indication that commodities are going to rally any time soon. If you look at the near past you would think that commodities are due for a staggering rally because they have not been this cheap in a long time.
Well in my humble opinion, "this time it really is different".
Commodities are low because that is where the central banks want them. What led to the last collapse is the fact that commodities got out of control very quickly. Things became too expensive and we had a collapse. I doubt very much that they are going to allow this to happen again. No one can afford expensive food just so the hedge funds can make some money.
If you are a low value buyer like I usually tell you to do then this is the time to load up but I don't think that is what will happen this time. Yes they are a screaming buy but I think they will be a screaming buy for the forseeable future.
Ok enough said, stay tuned to my EUR/USD blog for some extra capital.
Cheers!
The question you want to ask is, "What is likely to happen from here"?
The easy answer is, "I don't know", because in all honesty no one ever really does.
It is still too early in the cycle to think of a big move in any direction so we need to assume that the markets are likely to move sideways for the forseeable future. That means at least another week or two.
There is no real extremes building in any markets so there is no reason to believe that any of them are going to do anything extraordinary. For those of you who have followed my thoughts for a while you generally know that my beliefs are correct. That is not to say that I am not wrong from time to time but my timing is usually good. As I said there is nothing to tell me at the moment that anyone is not happy with the markets being where they are which generally indicates what the central banks are likely to do. At the moment I don't think much.
If you hop on the band wagon of all the experts who see gold taking off on another bull ride or that gold is going to rise know this. The only way that is going to happen is if the Dollar falls hard. I mean hard. That is not likely to happen any time soon so how many times are you going to listen to the same drivel coming out of these guys mouths.
The truth is, they think that they know, but they don't.
As for myself it is a time to buy any major dips in the stock indexes and I will be watching the CRB for any indication that it might be bottoming. So far there is no indication that commodities are going to rally any time soon. If you look at the near past you would think that commodities are due for a staggering rally because they have not been this cheap in a long time.
Well in my humble opinion, "this time it really is different".
Commodities are low because that is where the central banks want them. What led to the last collapse is the fact that commodities got out of control very quickly. Things became too expensive and we had a collapse. I doubt very much that they are going to allow this to happen again. No one can afford expensive food just so the hedge funds can make some money.
If you are a low value buyer like I usually tell you to do then this is the time to load up but I don't think that is what will happen this time. Yes they are a screaming buy but I think they will be a screaming buy for the forseeable future.
Ok enough said, stay tuned to my EUR/USD blog for some extra capital.
Cheers!
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