Clearing Your Head and Focusing Outward. Your Guide to the New Normal.
Ha...if you are following the Perma bears at the moment or any of the other mainstream talking heads you probably don't know whether you are coming or going. I watch so many YouTubers and bloggers who think they have the best idea of what is going on in the markets at the moment. I have to be honest. They are a great source of laughter for me. Especially the negative ones with egos that are far bigger than their brains.
The Dow sold off a bit today. So what! It would have to get to around the 23000 area for me to even remotely look at it seriously enough to consider this bull market to be in jeopardy of ending. We aren't even close. In fact, the minor trend line is at the 26700 area which we are still not close to. End of story. Buy the dips.
The Dollar index may be a sell. It hit the upper end of its sideways range the other day and it appears to be turning where it will head down towards the 90 and maybe 85 areas before turning again. Bonds have hit their upper limits and would appear ready to start increasing in price again or a sell depending on what instrument you are trading. In futures, it would be a reversal to the upside. We are very close to it.
Other than that the markets are performing as the central banks want them to. Devoid of volatility and totally removed from correlated effects. This is a plan people so no it is not random walk like in the past.
Oil moved up after clearing the stops as I said it might but at this level, I would be careful of a reversal back lower again to shake out the weak longs. I profited handsomely from the move so far.
The debt markets are simply signifying the end of a credit cycle. Yes, it is a lot of money to inject back into the system but that is what happens when you lend money to people with less than stellar credit. Your risks are higher and therefore your losses are higher. However, no one seems to give a shit so all is well. They will just make it easier for the broke people to reborrow so not a problem.
Yes, the economic growth is based solely on debt expansion but that is how it has always been anyway. It simply takes more money to create more and more debt expansion in the economy but when your rifle has an unlimited amount of rounds you don't really worry. No, they are not losing control of the markets as some would have you believe. Nor is the bubbles that they have blow going to pop any time soon. So no need to run to your bomb shelter just yet lol
About the only thing that is moving in a predictable way these days is gold. It moved higher with the Dollar rising and it should go higher yet with the Dollar falling. I don't think it matters. Let's be realistic Gold is not rising on its own. It is being pushed higher by the same entities that are controlling the markets or it wouldn't be rising. They have some sort of plan for it but that is anyone's guess. I don't see them shackling any currency to it at this stage of the game as it is too hard to inflate the money supply with it shackled to a relic like gold. Buy it if you want but I doubt that they have any use for it in the monetary system any time soon. Perhaps just another bubble to make people a little richer? Who knows.
Just for reference in inflation-adjusted terms, the DOW is right about where it should be, so no it is not overvalued. No, it is not based on any sound fundamentals but in keeping up with inflation at 2% per year over the past few decades this is where it should be. I will tell you when it is time to sell. Now is not that time.
The Dow sold off a bit today. So what! It would have to get to around the 23000 area for me to even remotely look at it seriously enough to consider this bull market to be in jeopardy of ending. We aren't even close. In fact, the minor trend line is at the 26700 area which we are still not close to. End of story. Buy the dips.
The Dollar index may be a sell. It hit the upper end of its sideways range the other day and it appears to be turning where it will head down towards the 90 and maybe 85 areas before turning again. Bonds have hit their upper limits and would appear ready to start increasing in price again or a sell depending on what instrument you are trading. In futures, it would be a reversal to the upside. We are very close to it.
Other than that the markets are performing as the central banks want them to. Devoid of volatility and totally removed from correlated effects. This is a plan people so no it is not random walk like in the past.
Oil moved up after clearing the stops as I said it might but at this level, I would be careful of a reversal back lower again to shake out the weak longs. I profited handsomely from the move so far.
The debt markets are simply signifying the end of a credit cycle. Yes, it is a lot of money to inject back into the system but that is what happens when you lend money to people with less than stellar credit. Your risks are higher and therefore your losses are higher. However, no one seems to give a shit so all is well. They will just make it easier for the broke people to reborrow so not a problem.
Yes, the economic growth is based solely on debt expansion but that is how it has always been anyway. It simply takes more money to create more and more debt expansion in the economy but when your rifle has an unlimited amount of rounds you don't really worry. No, they are not losing control of the markets as some would have you believe. Nor is the bubbles that they have blow going to pop any time soon. So no need to run to your bomb shelter just yet lol
About the only thing that is moving in a predictable way these days is gold. It moved higher with the Dollar rising and it should go higher yet with the Dollar falling. I don't think it matters. Let's be realistic Gold is not rising on its own. It is being pushed higher by the same entities that are controlling the markets or it wouldn't be rising. They have some sort of plan for it but that is anyone's guess. I don't see them shackling any currency to it at this stage of the game as it is too hard to inflate the money supply with it shackled to a relic like gold. Buy it if you want but I doubt that they have any use for it in the monetary system any time soon. Perhaps just another bubble to make people a little richer? Who knows.
Just for reference in inflation-adjusted terms, the DOW is right about where it should be, so no it is not overvalued. No, it is not based on any sound fundamentals but in keeping up with inflation at 2% per year over the past few decades this is where it should be. I will tell you when it is time to sell. Now is not that time.
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