The Big Commodities Bull?
Alright, so it would appear that we are poised for the biggest commodity bull market in 50 years. The first thing I would note is that it sounds like a copy write article. Have a look at this article here on this link.
https://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/why-commodities-are-poised-for-their-biggest-rally-in-50-years/
If you follow the past (historical) 50 years you would identify that indeed it is relatively a good time to buy commodities.
Not so fast.
We are not living in historical times anymore.
The question you need to ask is, "what would cause a bull in commodities at the moment other than speculative bulls?
The answer, of course, is "nothing would cause a bull market at the moment".
Although speculation is generally the cause of most bulls it is not going to happen in this case. You will simply buy and the market will remain down for years to come.
You already know my take on all of this. The markets are artificially controlled by all central banks around the world. This may come as a shock to some but these people are not stupid. They know that a commodity shock would not be good for people in debt. That is basically what caused the last crash in 2008.
The second point here is, there is no demand. The boomers have stopped spending on big ticket items. In fact, the only thing they are doing is getting ready to pass on. If you wanted to invest in old age homes well that might be a better way of doing it, but commodities. No.
The average boomer is around 69-70 years old now. Downsizing might be the only thought in your head at this stage. That depends on your health or if you have saved anything, which most boomers did not.
The Millenials are not looking to buy the same items as their parents. They are not looking at making the same mistakes. So where is the boom going to come from?
The answer is nowhere.
The free market is not a free market anymore. The speculators that made fortunes in the 70's and 80's are not doing so well these days, not to mention that they are ready for the grave (most of them).
Lastly, we are living in a different time of demonetization and democratization where prices of most things are headed very low in relation to technology which is changing everything. In other words, times are very different than in the past.
I agree that we are due for another bubble somewhere but where is anyone's guess at the moment.
This is one of those situations that although you are investing low it could go lower. There is a lot of upside potential but it might not get there for a lifetime. Cheers!
https://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/why-commodities-are-poised-for-their-biggest-rally-in-50-years/
If you follow the past (historical) 50 years you would identify that indeed it is relatively a good time to buy commodities.
Not so fast.
We are not living in historical times anymore.
The question you need to ask is, "what would cause a bull in commodities at the moment other than speculative bulls?
The answer, of course, is "nothing would cause a bull market at the moment".
Although speculation is generally the cause of most bulls it is not going to happen in this case. You will simply buy and the market will remain down for years to come.
You already know my take on all of this. The markets are artificially controlled by all central banks around the world. This may come as a shock to some but these people are not stupid. They know that a commodity shock would not be good for people in debt. That is basically what caused the last crash in 2008.
The second point here is, there is no demand. The boomers have stopped spending on big ticket items. In fact, the only thing they are doing is getting ready to pass on. If you wanted to invest in old age homes well that might be a better way of doing it, but commodities. No.
The average boomer is around 69-70 years old now. Downsizing might be the only thought in your head at this stage. That depends on your health or if you have saved anything, which most boomers did not.
The Millenials are not looking to buy the same items as their parents. They are not looking at making the same mistakes. So where is the boom going to come from?
The answer is nowhere.
The free market is not a free market anymore. The speculators that made fortunes in the 70's and 80's are not doing so well these days, not to mention that they are ready for the grave (most of them).
Lastly, we are living in a different time of demonetization and democratization where prices of most things are headed very low in relation to technology which is changing everything. In other words, times are very different than in the past.
I agree that we are due for another bubble somewhere but where is anyone's guess at the moment.
This is one of those situations that although you are investing low it could go lower. There is a lot of upside potential but it might not get there for a lifetime. Cheers!
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