Oil Pops...
Well I hope you were long oil yesterday and did not listen to all the pundits. You see if you do then you become the sheep who are led to slaughter. Sentiment is not as difficult to understand as some people make it out to be charging thousands for their complex research which often times is no better than your own. That is not to say being a contrarian is a sure way to make money either. You must look at all the variables, see what most traders miss and then not be afraid to act when they are.
You see all these hedge funds and large money managers have grossly outperformed the market average in the S&P for the past six years at least. However even in good times there is only a handful that make really good money while most other lose. Don't take my word for it google "Hedge Fund Performance" over the past six years and see for yourself.
There are two distinct factors at work at the moment that were not there years ago. The first is that most markets are correlated in one way or another as fund managers borrow cheap Dollars or Yen to make investments on the open market. The second is that there is a lot of meddling and manipulation going on in the markets by central banks that was not there in the past either. These are desperate times and people do desperate things. Why would central bankers who implement policy be any different. Well the truth is they are not.
You saw yesterday what happened when the Dollar got to 99.80 right? It completely reversed.
Why, you say when Draghi was talking down the EURO.
For the simple reason that the Fed does not want the Dollar to go much higher and has openly said this. The second is the market does not believe that the Fed will undergo a series of rate hikes in 2016 as it bragged about in December. There is simply no way that this can happen. None at all.
So I am looking for just the opposite of most people. A fall in the Dollar. A rise in the EURO, Oil to bottom in this area and head for 50.00 a barrel or more. Stocks to continue to rise.
You see it all makes sense in a certain way. My view of things are not mainstream but that is the point isn't it. How else are you going to make money?
Today is generally no different I am looking for oil to move up to the 31.00 area or more and chop around here for a few days. Anyway best to all and look to buy the dips in oil and stocks. Cheers!
You see all these hedge funds and large money managers have grossly outperformed the market average in the S&P for the past six years at least. However even in good times there is only a handful that make really good money while most other lose. Don't take my word for it google "Hedge Fund Performance" over the past six years and see for yourself.
There are two distinct factors at work at the moment that were not there years ago. The first is that most markets are correlated in one way or another as fund managers borrow cheap Dollars or Yen to make investments on the open market. The second is that there is a lot of meddling and manipulation going on in the markets by central banks that was not there in the past either. These are desperate times and people do desperate things. Why would central bankers who implement policy be any different. Well the truth is they are not.
You saw yesterday what happened when the Dollar got to 99.80 right? It completely reversed.
Why, you say when Draghi was talking down the EURO.
For the simple reason that the Fed does not want the Dollar to go much higher and has openly said this. The second is the market does not believe that the Fed will undergo a series of rate hikes in 2016 as it bragged about in December. There is simply no way that this can happen. None at all.
So I am looking for just the opposite of most people. A fall in the Dollar. A rise in the EURO, Oil to bottom in this area and head for 50.00 a barrel or more. Stocks to continue to rise.
You see it all makes sense in a certain way. My view of things are not mainstream but that is the point isn't it. How else are you going to make money?
Today is generally no different I am looking for oil to move up to the 31.00 area or more and chop around here for a few days. Anyway best to all and look to buy the dips in oil and stocks. Cheers!
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