NFP Numbers March 10, 2017
Well as expected the NFP numbers came in good. I expected there to be a deviation to the downside in some area that would cause the market to ramp the other way of what the main stream thought. That was of course wages today. At least that is what they'll say.
The real reason was of course you had a crowded trade one way. Look for the same to happen next week with the Fed set to raise interest rates 0.25%. It isn't a big deal and the market is making much more of the situation than it really is. It won't impact the average Joe at all. In fact it won't impact anyone really. Not the mortgage industry. Not the lending industry. Not the bond industry or anything else.
It is simply a Fed decision.
Personally the big guys were wrong a couple of years ago when the said that the bull market in Bonds was over and I think that they will be wrong again. I think the 10 Year is close to a bottom as far as a short is concerned. In other words I am saying the trade is very crowded and there is not much more downside left. Is it going to return back to its highs. Maybe.
However you are going to have to go against the herd to find out. If you are going to do this then this is the area. I am long bonds. The 10 year and 30 year to be specific. I am long the Deutche Bund too. I have been long the EUR/USD for quite some time and it is performing nicely.
If you are still short Gold from where I told you I would take some off the table and we may see a brief rally at this point. I personally am flat at the moment. I will be looking to sell probably closer to the 1231 to 1235 area but I will evaluate once we get there. Stocks made a brief hick up to the upside but it was nothing to write home about that is for sure. I made money today, did you?
This could very well be the bottom for the 10 year or it might get down to 122.80 area but I wouldn't see it falling much lower.
The real reason was of course you had a crowded trade one way. Look for the same to happen next week with the Fed set to raise interest rates 0.25%. It isn't a big deal and the market is making much more of the situation than it really is. It won't impact the average Joe at all. In fact it won't impact anyone really. Not the mortgage industry. Not the lending industry. Not the bond industry or anything else.
It is simply a Fed decision.
Personally the big guys were wrong a couple of years ago when the said that the bull market in Bonds was over and I think that they will be wrong again. I think the 10 Year is close to a bottom as far as a short is concerned. In other words I am saying the trade is very crowded and there is not much more downside left. Is it going to return back to its highs. Maybe.
However you are going to have to go against the herd to find out. If you are going to do this then this is the area. I am long bonds. The 10 year and 30 year to be specific. I am long the Deutche Bund too. I have been long the EUR/USD for quite some time and it is performing nicely.
If you are still short Gold from where I told you I would take some off the table and we may see a brief rally at this point. I personally am flat at the moment. I will be looking to sell probably closer to the 1231 to 1235 area but I will evaluate once we get there. Stocks made a brief hick up to the upside but it was nothing to write home about that is for sure. I made money today, did you?
This could very well be the bottom for the 10 year or it might get down to 122.80 area but I wouldn't see it falling much lower.
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