This Week in The Markets...March 26, 2017
I think that we are soon going to see a swing in the USD/MXP to either the downside if you are futures or to the upside if you trade spot. I am still long the currency and I haven't yet altered that view. I look at the drawdown as an opportunity versus a hinderance. We need to see somewhat of a rally in the USD before that happens. However we are due.
I am also looking at Gold selling off a bit more this week as it seems ready to test new lows for the year. I am short and I will continue to hold short for the time being. I still am not buying the short rally from the bottom and I think that the perma bulls are far too premature to be talking about the precious metal heading northward to any substantial degree.
What I don't like about the EURO at the moment is the number of retailers jumping on the bullish bandwagon. This is usually a sign of topping out in the near term and the larger speculators are scaling out of their shorts. So probably not a time to count on the EURO heading too much higher. Maybe 1.0900 to 1.1000 area but not much more before we see a return to the downside. The idea with my EUR/USD and USD/JPY signal is it plays off of the extremes. We are at one now. The USD/YEN may get to the 109.00 area but I think it will be contained there. Once again it is important NOT to take your eyes off the macro trend movements. Both the USD/YEN and the Dollar in my humble opinion have topped out. So I have been short at various levels versus long.
Ok that pretty much sums up my take on the markets and time will tell. If you focus on what can happen and is likely to happen it gives you a much better chance on your swing trades versus hoping for the best. Oil will continue to be range bound in this area before moving to the 44-45 level where you want to be buyers at that point.
I am also looking at Gold selling off a bit more this week as it seems ready to test new lows for the year. I am short and I will continue to hold short for the time being. I still am not buying the short rally from the bottom and I think that the perma bulls are far too premature to be talking about the precious metal heading northward to any substantial degree.
What I don't like about the EURO at the moment is the number of retailers jumping on the bullish bandwagon. This is usually a sign of topping out in the near term and the larger speculators are scaling out of their shorts. So probably not a time to count on the EURO heading too much higher. Maybe 1.0900 to 1.1000 area but not much more before we see a return to the downside. The idea with my EUR/USD and USD/JPY signal is it plays off of the extremes. We are at one now. The USD/YEN may get to the 109.00 area but I think it will be contained there. Once again it is important NOT to take your eyes off the macro trend movements. Both the USD/YEN and the Dollar in my humble opinion have topped out. So I have been short at various levels versus long.
Ok that pretty much sums up my take on the markets and time will tell. If you focus on what can happen and is likely to happen it gives you a much better chance on your swing trades versus hoping for the best. Oil will continue to be range bound in this area before moving to the 44-45 level where you want to be buyers at that point.
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