Oil Sliding....
Well if you listen to all the news you would think that oils slide has everything to do with the Saudi Prices failed deals and a shuffling of ideology by the OPEC nations.
I am not sure whether you are a believer of such shacko babble but if you have been following my own thoughts on oil and why I took the positions in the first place then you know that this slide is anything but unexpected. In fact I have expected it for quite some time.
As it teeters around the 47.00 level and looks downward for further support I would not expect to see it until it hits around the 43-44 level or lower. Perhaps 38-40. Don't be surprised at all if oil crashes to these levels over the next week or two.
Tell me what has changed in the oil market at all to sustain either a sharp move higher or to prompt a sell off. The answer is really simple. NOTHING! Plain and simple.
Price moves to what the market dictates is a fair value for the time and the supply. It is that simple. All I would add is that it also gravitates to the opposite side of over crowded trades most of the time. I am not a contrarian by nature but entities in the market are there for one reason and one reason only. To make money. Why else would you take a risk.
I would continue to hold my positions if you have been short with me from the 51.24 area. I would think that there will be short rallies of powerful magnitude as the entities holding longs attempt to push the market higher but I doubt they will overpower the liquidity providers at this stage. I would look for the black goo to head down to the areas I described. Like I mentioned don't be at all surprised to see oil at 39 in the not too distant future.
I don't really know how far it will fall. No one really does but the conditions are there for a major surprise to the downside.
Cheers!
I am not sure whether you are a believer of such shacko babble but if you have been following my own thoughts on oil and why I took the positions in the first place then you know that this slide is anything but unexpected. In fact I have expected it for quite some time.
As it teeters around the 47.00 level and looks downward for further support I would not expect to see it until it hits around the 43-44 level or lower. Perhaps 38-40. Don't be surprised at all if oil crashes to these levels over the next week or two.
Tell me what has changed in the oil market at all to sustain either a sharp move higher or to prompt a sell off. The answer is really simple. NOTHING! Plain and simple.
Price moves to what the market dictates is a fair value for the time and the supply. It is that simple. All I would add is that it also gravitates to the opposite side of over crowded trades most of the time. I am not a contrarian by nature but entities in the market are there for one reason and one reason only. To make money. Why else would you take a risk.
I would continue to hold my positions if you have been short with me from the 51.24 area. I would think that there will be short rallies of powerful magnitude as the entities holding longs attempt to push the market higher but I doubt they will overpower the liquidity providers at this stage. I would look for the black goo to head down to the areas I described. Like I mentioned don't be at all surprised to see oil at 39 in the not too distant future.
I don't really know how far it will fall. No one really does but the conditions are there for a major surprise to the downside.
Cheers!
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