Oil Update for You!
As you might recall I am one of the only ones who called the downtrend shortly after the bombings in Iraq. We still have a large imbalance of speculators and institutional traders who are long against the Commercial traders. You can check it out here.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/CL*0
The balance has evened out a bit but we could still see crude head down to the 50 dollars a barrel level quite easily.
So fundamentally what should you consider in these no price discovery markets?
The first thing that you should look at is the good ol' president. Right about where we are now is where he thought the fair market value of crude should be. Said so himself a few months back. Look it up if you don't think he did. That is pretty significant because it seems that whatever the president wants the president seems to get from the central banks.
He is crowing about negative interest rates and a lower dollar over the past few months and I think this will happen but only in time. Recently he said that he wanted a strong dollar when in Davos but that is what he tells the foreign debt holders so they don't think that their assets are going to fall in value.
If you are using volume as an indicator this is where you want to jump in and go contra to the trend. Here. Not some minor volume spot but here, for the simple reason that you will in no uncertain terms get a decent bounce even if the markets are headed lower. You can see this in the weekly and thirty-minute charts that I posted below. I did take the trade.
Is it too late?
No. Wait for a good pull back and see what happens. This is a weekly and monthly area so it is very powerful. The charts below will give you a reference point if you didn't see my posts earlier. If you have been following them then you knew way ahead of time that this area was a good one. There are only three distinct areas (as you can tell by my white lines) that crude has followed the past six years or so. Where we are now is one of them. If you wanted to do nothing else than patiently wait for these trades then your win percentage would likely be very good.
I hope you have enjoyed the new blog format and do subscribe. If I have enough subscribers I will start posting daily trades although I am probably going to do this anyway. Tell me what you want and I will provide it to you through my content. This is for you, not me so use it to your advantage.
Cheers!
https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/CL*0
The balance has evened out a bit but we could still see crude head down to the 50 dollars a barrel level quite easily.
So fundamentally what should you consider in these no price discovery markets?
The first thing that you should look at is the good ol' president. Right about where we are now is where he thought the fair market value of crude should be. Said so himself a few months back. Look it up if you don't think he did. That is pretty significant because it seems that whatever the president wants the president seems to get from the central banks.
He is crowing about negative interest rates and a lower dollar over the past few months and I think this will happen but only in time. Recently he said that he wanted a strong dollar when in Davos but that is what he tells the foreign debt holders so they don't think that their assets are going to fall in value.
If you are using volume as an indicator this is where you want to jump in and go contra to the trend. Here. Not some minor volume spot but here, for the simple reason that you will in no uncertain terms get a decent bounce even if the markets are headed lower. You can see this in the weekly and thirty-minute charts that I posted below. I did take the trade.
Is it too late?
No. Wait for a good pull back and see what happens. This is a weekly and monthly area so it is very powerful. The charts below will give you a reference point if you didn't see my posts earlier. If you have been following them then you knew way ahead of time that this area was a good one. There are only three distinct areas (as you can tell by my white lines) that crude has followed the past six years or so. Where we are now is one of them. If you wanted to do nothing else than patiently wait for these trades then your win percentage would likely be very good.
I hope you have enjoyed the new blog format and do subscribe. If I have enough subscribers I will start posting daily trades although I am probably going to do this anyway. Tell me what you want and I will provide it to you through my content. This is for you, not me so use it to your advantage.
Cheers!
No comments:
Post a Comment