January 29, 2010

January 29, 2010

Ok it appears that we are heading into another week of choppy trading. I see the majors starting the week moving lower against the USD but then reversing direction later in the week. As US data printed well today we should see further declines. I would look for Gold to fall under 1050.00 this week as the previous low is violated and stops are hit (likely many retail future positions) driving the price still further down before reversing again. This means that the majors will follow suit.
Most people have not realized that the USD is not in a minor hick up upturn but rather a full blown correction from its low that will last a great deal longer. When they do realize it it will likely be time for a reversal again. Yes the dollar is ina long term bear market but it will turn in 2011. Now why am I not selling the rallies yet?
The answer to that is, I seek high probability trades and not what the market herd are doing. It is not easy now to spot mid-term trends or short moves because so many people jump on board now. However I have an interesting way of knowing what to do and more importantly when to do it which more times than not positions me right.