This week in Forex....
This is an interesting period in our year and I think in the forex market this week as we should get some much needed volatility in the markets. I suspect that although we did not get a very good consumer confidence print it has not stopped consumers from ratcheting up the debt again. So confidence or no confidence the consumer is doing their part once again to incur debt.
I think that this week and perhaps for a short period of time measured in weeks we may get a risk off scenario unfolding. I suspect that the Dollar is due to rise strongly in the not too distant future as some carry trades unwind and Dollar's return home.
Our EUR/USD trades are still in play. The sixth call and the eighth call are still in play. I suspect this week should see the eighth close and possibly the sixth.
I do not put as much faith as some when the consensus see the EUR/USD comfortably in the 1.4 area. How on earth would that be comfortable to the countries that can't handle a strong EURO and are poised for bankruptcy as long as it stays high?
Price is what it is and I am not one to quibble with it but I will continue to stress there will be no recovery in the Eurozone while the Euro remains high. It simply cannot happen. It may not happen anyway with all the debt sloshing around there but at least it has a chance is the currency is lower.
Time and patience is on our side.
I suspect the USD/YEN to head to around the 99.00 area and some of the Yen pairs to weaken as a result. The USD/CHF should move up strongly from these levels and the GBP/USD is poised for further weakness.
All in all I would look for the Dollar to rise as some key news events and Fed speak should push it higher.
I think that this week and perhaps for a short period of time measured in weeks we may get a risk off scenario unfolding. I suspect that the Dollar is due to rise strongly in the not too distant future as some carry trades unwind and Dollar's return home.
Our EUR/USD trades are still in play. The sixth call and the eighth call are still in play. I suspect this week should see the eighth close and possibly the sixth.
I do not put as much faith as some when the consensus see the EUR/USD comfortably in the 1.4 area. How on earth would that be comfortable to the countries that can't handle a strong EURO and are poised for bankruptcy as long as it stays high?
Price is what it is and I am not one to quibble with it but I will continue to stress there will be no recovery in the Eurozone while the Euro remains high. It simply cannot happen. It may not happen anyway with all the debt sloshing around there but at least it has a chance is the currency is lower.
Time and patience is on our side.
I suspect the USD/YEN to head to around the 99.00 area and some of the Yen pairs to weaken as a result. The USD/CHF should move up strongly from these levels and the GBP/USD is poised for further weakness.
All in all I would look for the Dollar to rise as some key news events and Fed speak should push it higher.
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