10 Year Notes....
Well if you still have faith in the Fed and you still think that the super stars might be wrong like Gundlak and Gross then it might be time for you to look long in Treasuries. Inversely that is by the chart below. In particular I am looking at the 10 years where the commercials are very heavy long. I mean very. That includes the Fed.
If you believe that the Fed is going to raise interest rates three times next year (I don't) because they said that this year too and I think that 2017 is going to be a more difficult year than 2016 was then you might want to look at this overbought or oversold situation a little more seriously. I mean are they going to risk all that they have done for the past nine years?
Good question isn't it.
Personally I doubt it. People think they don't have any control over the markets and I firmly disagree. I tried that strategy back in 2010 with stocks and look where it got me. I took a loss. Not a big one but a good hit because I listened to too many pundits. Yep the market was heading lower after the flash crash. No way in the world the Fed could stop it. Dead cat bounce is over and all that other hog wash.
Well on the technical side the trend line is clearly broken as you can see. So there is two ways to play it. Sell the rise or buy where there is an extreme. There is an extreme. A big one. Hedge funds are short and smaller speculators are very heavily short. Meanwhile the guys who control the movements are exceptionally heavy long. I mean very heavily. Personally I put my money on these guys. After all they control the market. They Control gold, oil, everything pretty much at the moment. When they want to move it they will. Big time. That is why I am short the USD/CHF at the moment. It reflects the US Dollar index. I did well this week doing it and liquidated before the Fed's BS news and hawkish tone. That will change shortly.
So who the hell am I to be so brash and call against the experts. Exactly what have I done over the years to say I know what I am talking about. Well for starters I called the bull in Gold. I called the sell off in the US Dollar. Not hard the Fed and Billionaires told us also. I called the boom in Commodities in the early 2000`s although no one could have predicted oil to rise that high. I called the housing boom in 1985 and in 2002. I was a bull in stocks in 1993 when most people were short. I called the oil top of 2014 (not easy to do). I called the Bull run of the USD-YEN and the Dollar. I have a long track record of getting it right. Oh and by the way Harry Dent just called the top in the DOW. That means now is the time to think correction or short. However you knew my views already in previous blogs. The DOW is at a tremendous commercial extreme. I assure you it will correct. In the chart below you can see where I predict a bottom in the 10 year. It is an area and not to the tick. Who could be so stupid as to do that.
The Dollar index still had not broken its previous high even with all the good Fed news. It probably will but not by much. It may ratchet up to 105 but not much higher. Then the long journey the other way. Now this may not happen until mid 17 so don`t be in a swift rush for profits or you will be sorely disappointed. These things do not turn over night. However the conditions are there for it. Gold hickuped down a bit and the EURO did the same but nothing serious. I called the top in the USD-YEN too by the way at 126.90. Yep it went a little higher but what happened. Right a collapse from there. I will be shorting the currency pair at around the 119 to 122 mark too for the next leg down to 88 or lower. I told you the marks for the USD-CHF and they have worked nicely right. There is the chart below.
If you believe that the Fed is going to raise interest rates three times next year (I don't) because they said that this year too and I think that 2017 is going to be a more difficult year than 2016 was then you might want to look at this overbought or oversold situation a little more seriously. I mean are they going to risk all that they have done for the past nine years?
Good question isn't it.
Personally I doubt it. People think they don't have any control over the markets and I firmly disagree. I tried that strategy back in 2010 with stocks and look where it got me. I took a loss. Not a big one but a good hit because I listened to too many pundits. Yep the market was heading lower after the flash crash. No way in the world the Fed could stop it. Dead cat bounce is over and all that other hog wash.
Well on the technical side the trend line is clearly broken as you can see. So there is two ways to play it. Sell the rise or buy where there is an extreme. There is an extreme. A big one. Hedge funds are short and smaller speculators are very heavily short. Meanwhile the guys who control the movements are exceptionally heavy long. I mean very heavily. Personally I put my money on these guys. After all they control the market. They Control gold, oil, everything pretty much at the moment. When they want to move it they will. Big time. That is why I am short the USD/CHF at the moment. It reflects the US Dollar index. I did well this week doing it and liquidated before the Fed's BS news and hawkish tone. That will change shortly.
So who the hell am I to be so brash and call against the experts. Exactly what have I done over the years to say I know what I am talking about. Well for starters I called the bull in Gold. I called the sell off in the US Dollar. Not hard the Fed and Billionaires told us also. I called the boom in Commodities in the early 2000`s although no one could have predicted oil to rise that high. I called the housing boom in 1985 and in 2002. I was a bull in stocks in 1993 when most people were short. I called the oil top of 2014 (not easy to do). I called the Bull run of the USD-YEN and the Dollar. I have a long track record of getting it right. Oh and by the way Harry Dent just called the top in the DOW. That means now is the time to think correction or short. However you knew my views already in previous blogs. The DOW is at a tremendous commercial extreme. I assure you it will correct. In the chart below you can see where I predict a bottom in the 10 year. It is an area and not to the tick. Who could be so stupid as to do that.
The Dollar index still had not broken its previous high even with all the good Fed news. It probably will but not by much. It may ratchet up to 105 but not much higher. Then the long journey the other way. Now this may not happen until mid 17 so don`t be in a swift rush for profits or you will be sorely disappointed. These things do not turn over night. However the conditions are there for it. Gold hickuped down a bit and the EURO did the same but nothing serious. I called the top in the USD-YEN too by the way at 126.90. Yep it went a little higher but what happened. Right a collapse from there. I will be shorting the currency pair at around the 119 to 122 mark too for the next leg down to 88 or lower. I told you the marks for the USD-CHF and they have worked nicely right. There is the chart below.
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