Gold and Market Sentiment....
As I do more research into possible turning points and where we might look at certain markets I see that we are indeed approaching a point where the markets may take a breather. The Dollar has been responsible for most of the action and if next week they raise interest rates then we may have a continuation of the current trends until at least the new year.
Commitment of traders tells me that the commercials are lightening their shorts and adding to longs in Gold at the moment just as the hedge funds and retailers are adding to their short holdings. I don't think that it is ready yet to make a big turn but I don't think that we are that far off regardless of what the Fed decides to do around the FOMC meeting this week. I will be frank I am not sure at this point that they will raise rates. I know it sounds fairly surreal at this point especially if the Fed is trying to save face. It almost has to raise rates and that is what the market is pricing in. It is usually at times like these that we get a surprise isn't it? It would be a big one wouldn't it?
Most of the pundits have been wrong this year on just about every major prediction that they had from Brexit to the elections. Why stop now lol.
For the meeting this week I will be short the USD/CHF. So in a sense that means I will be short the Dollar. I will be long Gold at this point too. I am still sticking to my earlier forecast around the USD/CHF as you saw from my previous post. It is surely going to fall and fall hard. It is simply a matter of timing.
Looking at the DOW it is similar. Very similar so I will likely be short the DOW too. Once again not if but when it corrects. The problem is that the retailers are short too but that is irrelevant to the bigger money. Most of the hedge funds are heavily long and this is what moves the markets. Not the little guys.
If by some chance the Fed follows through with a small incremental increase of 0.25% which in truth means nothing to anything really then you may have a quick spike up and then a big reversal. I don't think that there will be much follow through so don't try to catch the express up or down depending on the market you are trading as I think you will get caught in a trap. As I said your safest bet is in the USD/CHF. Look for the surprise folks that is all I can say. It ought to be a doozy.
Commitment of traders tells me that the commercials are lightening their shorts and adding to longs in Gold at the moment just as the hedge funds and retailers are adding to their short holdings. I don't think that it is ready yet to make a big turn but I don't think that we are that far off regardless of what the Fed decides to do around the FOMC meeting this week. I will be frank I am not sure at this point that they will raise rates. I know it sounds fairly surreal at this point especially if the Fed is trying to save face. It almost has to raise rates and that is what the market is pricing in. It is usually at times like these that we get a surprise isn't it? It would be a big one wouldn't it?
Most of the pundits have been wrong this year on just about every major prediction that they had from Brexit to the elections. Why stop now lol.
For the meeting this week I will be short the USD/CHF. So in a sense that means I will be short the Dollar. I will be long Gold at this point too. I am still sticking to my earlier forecast around the USD/CHF as you saw from my previous post. It is surely going to fall and fall hard. It is simply a matter of timing.
Looking at the DOW it is similar. Very similar so I will likely be short the DOW too. Once again not if but when it corrects. The problem is that the retailers are short too but that is irrelevant to the bigger money. Most of the hedge funds are heavily long and this is what moves the markets. Not the little guys.
If by some chance the Fed follows through with a small incremental increase of 0.25% which in truth means nothing to anything really then you may have a quick spike up and then a big reversal. I don't think that there will be much follow through so don't try to catch the express up or down depending on the market you are trading as I think you will get caught in a trap. As I said your safest bet is in the USD/CHF. Look for the surprise folks that is all I can say. It ought to be a doozy.
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