Market Wizards and This Weeks Thoughts.
Would you say that making money in the markets is easy?
Of course not.
No one in their right mind who is a full time trader would say such a thing with a strait face. Anyone who is a full time trader knows that it is not. However I believe that we are entering a time again where you can make short term gains from trend style approaches to trading. This is the time period that minted the famous millionaire traders that you read about in books like Market Wizards and other sources that try to sell you that of course you can do the same. The truth is you cannot unless you have market conditions that are similar to when they made their fortunes. Keeping in mind that they were still a unique class of trader that not everyone can imitate. When you realize what they sacrificed to become what they became you realize that this is simply dam hard to do. There will come a point too where you risk a serious loss. They all had this happen to them at least once.
I am not a market wizard. I want to be. We all want to be. You know living the life of O'reilly with the ability to make money in the markets at will. I don't think that this is realistic at all. I think that if you are lucky enough to get one over on the big guns you take your money and run. Like a business that goes well you sell it like say a Kevin O'leary and you let the new owner take the risks which become ever higher year after year. O'Leary brags and is looked on like some icon that we all can emulate but the truth is he got dam lucky. That is it. He was no Warren Buffet that made money over time and continues to take large amounts of money and make money on that large amount. No sir. He was a one shot wonder. So don't buy all the crap you hear. Would Bill Gates still be a billionaire if he had to compete all over again with all the competition out there in his niche? Well guys who are super salesmen like him probably would make millions, but billions? I doubt it. You might never even know who he is but for the being at the right place at the right time. Well that is trading my friends. If you are in the right place at the right time with the right strategy you can make money. Lots of it?
Who knows.
However here are my thoughts this week to try and help you navigate with the smart money. I told you that the |USD/CHF was at a turning point. It worked last week and it is likely to work this week and subsequent weeks going forward. I also called the "Dent Top" (you know Harry Dent calling the market long now). You can see by the chart below what I think is going to happen to the Dow over the next few weeks or months of the new year.
Why?
I am placing my bet with the smart money. That is the commercials. Long Bonds (or short if you invert them); short the Dollar; long gold; short the USD/JPY; Long Oil after a pull back (a big one by the way) and Long the EUR/USD. The Big hedge funds don't take these sorts of positions because they are hedging right. You go short the Dollar well you don't want to be long the EUR/USD or Short the USD/CHF at the same time because that is like having three positions all doing the same thing right. No you want to weight you trade in a direction like say being short the Dollar but Long the USD/CHF or Short the EUR/USD just in case you are wrong which is the whole point behind the term hedge. You control the risk. That being said markets can and do decouple from time to time and you might find yourself taking losses on all markets you are in when you get a completely unexpected move right. If you want to make short term money in the markets and you feel that the only way you can stomach trading is to compete daily than you may wish to look at my blog
http://nqwti.blogspot.ca/ which is as it says, Trading the NASDAQ and OIL. I have done 10% this month on a large account. Not easy to do. However if you want to trade daily with me then this is where you go. I use market profile and other techniques that are unconventional to give myself a fighting chance. It generally works.
Here are two charts:
That's my plan for the new year. Stay tuned to my other blog on Gold. I think you get the gist of my thoughts and no I am not poking fun at Harry (ok maybe just a little lol) but hey we are only human.
Of course not.
No one in their right mind who is a full time trader would say such a thing with a strait face. Anyone who is a full time trader knows that it is not. However I believe that we are entering a time again where you can make short term gains from trend style approaches to trading. This is the time period that minted the famous millionaire traders that you read about in books like Market Wizards and other sources that try to sell you that of course you can do the same. The truth is you cannot unless you have market conditions that are similar to when they made their fortunes. Keeping in mind that they were still a unique class of trader that not everyone can imitate. When you realize what they sacrificed to become what they became you realize that this is simply dam hard to do. There will come a point too where you risk a serious loss. They all had this happen to them at least once.
I am not a market wizard. I want to be. We all want to be. You know living the life of O'reilly with the ability to make money in the markets at will. I don't think that this is realistic at all. I think that if you are lucky enough to get one over on the big guns you take your money and run. Like a business that goes well you sell it like say a Kevin O'leary and you let the new owner take the risks which become ever higher year after year. O'Leary brags and is looked on like some icon that we all can emulate but the truth is he got dam lucky. That is it. He was no Warren Buffet that made money over time and continues to take large amounts of money and make money on that large amount. No sir. He was a one shot wonder. So don't buy all the crap you hear. Would Bill Gates still be a billionaire if he had to compete all over again with all the competition out there in his niche? Well guys who are super salesmen like him probably would make millions, but billions? I doubt it. You might never even know who he is but for the being at the right place at the right time. Well that is trading my friends. If you are in the right place at the right time with the right strategy you can make money. Lots of it?
Who knows.
However here are my thoughts this week to try and help you navigate with the smart money. I told you that the |USD/CHF was at a turning point. It worked last week and it is likely to work this week and subsequent weeks going forward. I also called the "Dent Top" (you know Harry Dent calling the market long now). You can see by the chart below what I think is going to happen to the Dow over the next few weeks or months of the new year.
Why?
I am placing my bet with the smart money. That is the commercials. Long Bonds (or short if you invert them); short the Dollar; long gold; short the USD/JPY; Long Oil after a pull back (a big one by the way) and Long the EUR/USD. The Big hedge funds don't take these sorts of positions because they are hedging right. You go short the Dollar well you don't want to be long the EUR/USD or Short the USD/CHF at the same time because that is like having three positions all doing the same thing right. No you want to weight you trade in a direction like say being short the Dollar but Long the USD/CHF or Short the EUR/USD just in case you are wrong which is the whole point behind the term hedge. You control the risk. That being said markets can and do decouple from time to time and you might find yourself taking losses on all markets you are in when you get a completely unexpected move right. If you want to make short term money in the markets and you feel that the only way you can stomach trading is to compete daily than you may wish to look at my blog
http://nqwti.blogspot.ca/ which is as it says, Trading the NASDAQ and OIL. I have done 10% this month on a large account. Not easy to do. However if you want to trade daily with me then this is where you go. I use market profile and other techniques that are unconventional to give myself a fighting chance. It generally works.
Here are two charts:
That's my plan for the new year. Stay tuned to my other blog on Gold. I think you get the gist of my thoughts and no I am not poking fun at Harry (ok maybe just a little lol) but hey we are only human.
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