Bonds, Sugar, Feeder Cattle and Oil
Ok fellow traders I have done some rudimentary research and I have found that some serious extremes exist in the market.
If you are an oil buff and you think that we just might be due for a long squeeze well now is the time. There are record longs in the sticky goo at this point and there simply is no reason to believe in a technical or fundamental sense that oil is moving higher. There is a pattern I look for to know when a likely big short is looming and that pattern is there.
What is that pattern you ask?
Ooops...the phone is ringing....lol
Feeder Cattle are getting a little pricy and I think that Sugar is headed for its next leg down very soon. Maybe not this week but maybe so.
Bonds are looking like a big short or long. I have no faith in the Fed to raise interest rates in the face of perhaps some headwinds headed our way so in lieu of this I could see them lowering rates and using QE again in 2017. Yep contrary to even what the big boys are seeing I do not see that. I simply don't think they have bottomed yet. There would be no reason to believe this in the age of easy money. With unemployment cooling a bit the Fed is in no hurry to jack rates any time soon.
I am looking long in bonds and short in oil this week. I would not be in a hurry to go long in Bonds just yet (that being the 10 year and 30 year) but I would be in a hurry with Oil.
It might hick up to 55 or 56 but after that BOOM. A powerful sell off is coming. For more than one reason I say this. Trust me now is not the time to be long oil for the long run. There will come a time but not at the moment. By Sept or Oct of this year is when you want to be thinking Long.
Ok you best market is once again oil. I still expect some choppy action this week but it could tank at any time. Below is my projections for long term bonds this year. Its inverted so if you trade futures it is the other way around. You can see that I don't think we have bottomed yet but we are not far off.
If you are an oil buff and you think that we just might be due for a long squeeze well now is the time. There are record longs in the sticky goo at this point and there simply is no reason to believe in a technical or fundamental sense that oil is moving higher. There is a pattern I look for to know when a likely big short is looming and that pattern is there.
What is that pattern you ask?
Ooops...the phone is ringing....lol
Feeder Cattle are getting a little pricy and I think that Sugar is headed for its next leg down very soon. Maybe not this week but maybe so.
Bonds are looking like a big short or long. I have no faith in the Fed to raise interest rates in the face of perhaps some headwinds headed our way so in lieu of this I could see them lowering rates and using QE again in 2017. Yep contrary to even what the big boys are seeing I do not see that. I simply don't think they have bottomed yet. There would be no reason to believe this in the age of easy money. With unemployment cooling a bit the Fed is in no hurry to jack rates any time soon.
I am looking long in bonds and short in oil this week. I would not be in a hurry to go long in Bonds just yet (that being the 10 year and 30 year) but I would be in a hurry with Oil.
It might hick up to 55 or 56 but after that BOOM. A powerful sell off is coming. For more than one reason I say this. Trust me now is not the time to be long oil for the long run. There will come a time but not at the moment. By Sept or Oct of this year is when you want to be thinking Long.
Ok you best market is once again oil. I still expect some choppy action this week but it could tank at any time. Below is my projections for long term bonds this year. Its inverted so if you trade futures it is the other way around. You can see that I don't think we have bottomed yet but we are not far off.
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