Mega Managers...
Well it is that time of year again for the pundits that call themselves the "smartest men in the room" to start crowing about the total collapse of the economy. I am sure that you all have heard it and the tone is getting louder lately which to me signals higher highs in the markets.
Let me ask you this. "Why on earth would you predict that a total collapse is imminent when it hasn't happened to date and the only data you can correlate is what happened over the last 40 years"?
I mean I am humble enough to openly admit that I don't know. Why on earth can't these people do it?
First of all they were wrong in Treasuries yet again. They were supposed to collapse too. Well after today they are racing upward yet again. As for me I have been telling you that interest rates are going to stay low for a very long time. That the bond bull is NOT over at all. So far I have been right while they have been wrong.
They keep calling for a stock market tank. Don't believe it. You want to be fully exposed to the Dow which in my humble opinion is racing towards 50,000 which is almost double where it is now.
On top of that I told you the Dollar had peaked. So far it has.
I also told you that this would allow Gold to race higher given the Dollar moving the other way. Also true. No it is not going to 5000. It might hit 1600 but I doubt much higher in the near term.
Oils range has been on the money although my last prediction for the short term was wrong. Yep I take losses to and from time to time I am wrong. It is that simple.
Most commodities are going to stay in a range. They are not ready to make any more bull runs because quite frankly there is no momentum in global manufacturing. Some commodities you want exposure to. Like Uranium and a few other beaten down markets.
In fairness to the big guys it is not easy at the moment with volatility almost non existent. I certainly wouldn't want a large fund to manage at the moment. I have had this view for a few years now as it is too hard to earn alpha. What is the sense of having the money when you can't make any money with it? You know...lol.
Anyway my message to you today is to ignore the idiots. They don't know any more than you ok. They act like they do but they don't. Remember the bull is a bull until it isn't. If you are using risk properly you shouldn't worry. If you have instructions to your CFP at the level to liquidate profits in your portfolio you shouldn't worry. If you are not doing these things well then you are taking a trade with NO stop loss. Not very smart. Cheers!
Let me ask you this. "Why on earth would you predict that a total collapse is imminent when it hasn't happened to date and the only data you can correlate is what happened over the last 40 years"?
I mean I am humble enough to openly admit that I don't know. Why on earth can't these people do it?
First of all they were wrong in Treasuries yet again. They were supposed to collapse too. Well after today they are racing upward yet again. As for me I have been telling you that interest rates are going to stay low for a very long time. That the bond bull is NOT over at all. So far I have been right while they have been wrong.
They keep calling for a stock market tank. Don't believe it. You want to be fully exposed to the Dow which in my humble opinion is racing towards 50,000 which is almost double where it is now.
On top of that I told you the Dollar had peaked. So far it has.
I also told you that this would allow Gold to race higher given the Dollar moving the other way. Also true. No it is not going to 5000. It might hit 1600 but I doubt much higher in the near term.
Oils range has been on the money although my last prediction for the short term was wrong. Yep I take losses to and from time to time I am wrong. It is that simple.
Most commodities are going to stay in a range. They are not ready to make any more bull runs because quite frankly there is no momentum in global manufacturing. Some commodities you want exposure to. Like Uranium and a few other beaten down markets.
In fairness to the big guys it is not easy at the moment with volatility almost non existent. I certainly wouldn't want a large fund to manage at the moment. I have had this view for a few years now as it is too hard to earn alpha. What is the sense of having the money when you can't make any money with it? You know...lol.
Anyway my message to you today is to ignore the idiots. They don't know any more than you ok. They act like they do but they don't. Remember the bull is a bull until it isn't. If you are using risk properly you shouldn't worry. If you have instructions to your CFP at the level to liquidate profits in your portfolio you shouldn't worry. If you are not doing these things well then you are taking a trade with NO stop loss. Not very smart. Cheers!
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