The Fed and Its Debt Unwind....Should You Care?
As you know I go to great lengths here to keep people from falling into the "know it all" trap that permeate's the great divide known as financial experts. You should be aware if you have read my blog long enough that this does not exist. I told you before that these people just "don't know".
They don't!
Let's take for instance a certain oil guru with a Dr. in front on his name that recently told all subscribers that oil was on an unstoppable run to 65 dollars a barrel. Really?
Sure doesn't look like that to me because as I write oil is at 42-43 dollars a barrel and making a triangular volume area at the bottom which over 87% of the time signals further downside which I suspect is where it is headed. Like I already told you it is likely headed to the 35-40 level before we see any upside. Except here is the problem. Other big shots other than me have seen the levels now that I have described for many months and are going on record telling everyone to back up the truck for oil's inevitable bounce back to new highs. While they might be right about the bounce back their timing is off. As long as people keep loading up at the so called bottom the BOTTOM is NOT in and won't be until they throw in the towel. That might not be until new lows are hit. So be careful. Right now the direction is clearly down and make no mistake about it. That is what price action is saying. You have heard that bottom or top fishing is a suckers game. It is. No one knows. Not me, not them and not anyone else. You have my chart on how I think it will unfold but choose the levels wisely. I will guide you on them. Oil has and it will continue to inflict a lot of pain on those that think the Fed has their back.
The latest talk is the Fed now unwinding its massive 4.5 trillion debt balance that it accrued in 2008 until 2012. Let me first be very clear with you. Central banks have pumped in a LOT more than 4.5 trillion over the past decade or so. Try about a 100 trillion or more. Don't forget there is over a quadrillion of derivatives floating around out there. This is all funny, leveraged, money that appears directly out of thin air.
When and IF they start to do this which is very small to what they can print out of thin air it will have little to NO effect on YOU. Yes you heard that right. Like the 20 trillion sitting on internal debt it will not really be a factor. When you go digital (which is where they are headed) you can print until the cows come home and swallow up whatever you wish. Worse comes to worse they'll change the rules. It is that simple. It never ceases to amaze me that people who should know better learn nothing from Japan. Its debt to GDP now stands over 220%. Yet they are no closer to financial armageddon than they were twenty years ago. Folks they can play this game a very long time ok. The point being while you are waiting for a catastrophic end to unfold you will miss out on some very promising market moves.
When I see the unavoidable collapse coming (and I generally do in most markets) I will let you know. So far that hasn't and won't happen. Wishing you all the best.
They don't!
Let's take for instance a certain oil guru with a Dr. in front on his name that recently told all subscribers that oil was on an unstoppable run to 65 dollars a barrel. Really?
Sure doesn't look like that to me because as I write oil is at 42-43 dollars a barrel and making a triangular volume area at the bottom which over 87% of the time signals further downside which I suspect is where it is headed. Like I already told you it is likely headed to the 35-40 level before we see any upside. Except here is the problem. Other big shots other than me have seen the levels now that I have described for many months and are going on record telling everyone to back up the truck for oil's inevitable bounce back to new highs. While they might be right about the bounce back their timing is off. As long as people keep loading up at the so called bottom the BOTTOM is NOT in and won't be until they throw in the towel. That might not be until new lows are hit. So be careful. Right now the direction is clearly down and make no mistake about it. That is what price action is saying. You have heard that bottom or top fishing is a suckers game. It is. No one knows. Not me, not them and not anyone else. You have my chart on how I think it will unfold but choose the levels wisely. I will guide you on them. Oil has and it will continue to inflict a lot of pain on those that think the Fed has their back.
The latest talk is the Fed now unwinding its massive 4.5 trillion debt balance that it accrued in 2008 until 2012. Let me first be very clear with you. Central banks have pumped in a LOT more than 4.5 trillion over the past decade or so. Try about a 100 trillion or more. Don't forget there is over a quadrillion of derivatives floating around out there. This is all funny, leveraged, money that appears directly out of thin air.
When and IF they start to do this which is very small to what they can print out of thin air it will have little to NO effect on YOU. Yes you heard that right. Like the 20 trillion sitting on internal debt it will not really be a factor. When you go digital (which is where they are headed) you can print until the cows come home and swallow up whatever you wish. Worse comes to worse they'll change the rules. It is that simple. It never ceases to amaze me that people who should know better learn nothing from Japan. Its debt to GDP now stands over 220%. Yet they are no closer to financial armageddon than they were twenty years ago. Folks they can play this game a very long time ok. The point being while you are waiting for a catastrophic end to unfold you will miss out on some very promising market moves.
When I see the unavoidable collapse coming (and I generally do in most markets) I will let you know. So far that hasn't and won't happen. Wishing you all the best.
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