What's Going On With Oil?
Isn't oil supposed to be racing to new highs as all the money shufflers say and the big production cut by OPEC?
Well that is why we have levels and why we have stops. Just in case we get one wrong every now and then which we do. If you have been following my trades up to now you are doing well. In fact very well if you let them run. I am going on the assumption that most people don't so even so you should be well up on the black goo so far this year.
Ok Marc so enough of your talk where is it headed?
Well at the moment I don't have that answer. I think based on executed orders on the CME that we may be close to a bottom. However it is still not a good enough risk to reward for me to say. We do know that the 40.00 level in the past has been the line in the sand as this is where profitability for the small businesses and frackers comes to an end. It is an area that is pretty powerful for the banks too as they have a lot of debt on these companies so by chance it does fall below the 40.00 level I doubt very much it will stay here very long.
My own intuition is that we are in a sideways market that will stay that way for a long time. As mentioned between the 65 level and 35-40 level for a few more years. I feel that it is indeed being manipulated this way so I would not look for too many surprises to the upside or the downside for a long time.
Technically we can see by the chart that we closed below the all important 43.39 level which to me was the line in the sand where we could expect a powerful rally like we had in the past. If you are an Elliot Waver for whatever that means you might see that we are finishing and ABC corrective wave before a move higher. That being the case price should bottom around the 38. 21 area or slightly lower.
Personally I prefer the fundamentals around it versus pie in the sky lines which mean nothing really. I would look around the 40.70 level or slightly below to start looking at long term longs. The risk would be below 35 and the reward would be back to the 58 area. So about 3-4 to 1. That is what we want. I put what I think the pattern will be before the rally higher below.
Well that is why we have levels and why we have stops. Just in case we get one wrong every now and then which we do. If you have been following my trades up to now you are doing well. In fact very well if you let them run. I am going on the assumption that most people don't so even so you should be well up on the black goo so far this year.
Ok Marc so enough of your talk where is it headed?
Well at the moment I don't have that answer. I think based on executed orders on the CME that we may be close to a bottom. However it is still not a good enough risk to reward for me to say. We do know that the 40.00 level in the past has been the line in the sand as this is where profitability for the small businesses and frackers comes to an end. It is an area that is pretty powerful for the banks too as they have a lot of debt on these companies so by chance it does fall below the 40.00 level I doubt very much it will stay here very long.
My own intuition is that we are in a sideways market that will stay that way for a long time. As mentioned between the 65 level and 35-40 level for a few more years. I feel that it is indeed being manipulated this way so I would not look for too many surprises to the upside or the downside for a long time.
Technically we can see by the chart that we closed below the all important 43.39 level which to me was the line in the sand where we could expect a powerful rally like we had in the past. If you are an Elliot Waver for whatever that means you might see that we are finishing and ABC corrective wave before a move higher. That being the case price should bottom around the 38. 21 area or slightly lower.
Personally I prefer the fundamentals around it versus pie in the sky lines which mean nothing really. I would look around the 40.70 level or slightly below to start looking at long term longs. The risk would be below 35 and the reward would be back to the 58 area. So about 3-4 to 1. That is what we want. I put what I think the pattern will be before the rally higher below.
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