The Week of April 13, 2014
Ok, well last week we nailed the movement of the USD/JPY as it fell hard. For no other reason than traders loaded up on longs at the technical points that the currency pair was at and of course in relation to the US dollar data.
The dollar data came out positive enough that it should have made some nice progress but in this sideways market of course any time you have traders doing what makes sense then the markets do the opposite. Stop hunting all around last week was the theme. We haven't had a four or five day consecutive rise in the EURO in well over a year. Yet last week was the time the EURO made such a move. It was small by comparison with moves of the past as it only traveled a couple of hundred pips but once again it fell shy of breaking through the 1.3960 previous high.
Now that it seems impervious to being breached look for the market to head fake down then breach the level to about 1.4050 at least and then fall off again.
There is stop hunts in the Dollar and the EURO this week. The Dollar bounced from its low last week and looks to be rebounding again but this is more a head fake to a temporary breach of the trend line to sucker a few more traders.
When you have been around this game as long as I have it still makes me laugh at how obvious this stuff really is. However it still seems to get the newbies and even some experienced guys that still believe the markets are random. That no one is able to move a market this large. If you still think like this you are due for a very rude awakening.
Essentially all markets work this way. When you see a sure thing expect the opposite to occur. You may also believe that news plays a role or that fundamentals play a role and to some degree they do but no where near what most people think.
This is a good area to load up on some shorts for the EURO currency.
The Aussie I think is in good short territory too as it is hovering around the 61.8 Fib area from the move down from the highs.
Gold could be close to a significant pull back too so stay tuned here or my gold blog.
The dollar data came out positive enough that it should have made some nice progress but in this sideways market of course any time you have traders doing what makes sense then the markets do the opposite. Stop hunting all around last week was the theme. We haven't had a four or five day consecutive rise in the EURO in well over a year. Yet last week was the time the EURO made such a move. It was small by comparison with moves of the past as it only traveled a couple of hundred pips but once again it fell shy of breaking through the 1.3960 previous high.
Now that it seems impervious to being breached look for the market to head fake down then breach the level to about 1.4050 at least and then fall off again.
There is stop hunts in the Dollar and the EURO this week. The Dollar bounced from its low last week and looks to be rebounding again but this is more a head fake to a temporary breach of the trend line to sucker a few more traders.
When you have been around this game as long as I have it still makes me laugh at how obvious this stuff really is. However it still seems to get the newbies and even some experienced guys that still believe the markets are random. That no one is able to move a market this large. If you still think like this you are due for a very rude awakening.
Essentially all markets work this way. When you see a sure thing expect the opposite to occur. You may also believe that news plays a role or that fundamentals play a role and to some degree they do but no where near what most people think.
This is a good area to load up on some shorts for the EURO currency.
The Aussie I think is in good short territory too as it is hovering around the 61.8 Fib area from the move down from the highs.
Gold could be close to a significant pull back too so stay tuned here or my gold blog.
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