Predicting Price Movement Ahead of time....
The cartel that controls this casino usually tip their hand if you know what to look for. Most people simply look at the daily volume areas and try to extrapolate what price is likely to do. Obviously if enough traders see something which is the problem with obvious volume area price is more likely to do the opposite of what you expect because there is a high probability that YOU are on the same side as the other traders who see the same thing you do. The essence of the herd.
Now today's oil spike and many of them for that matter are somewhat predictable. I knew ahead to time (and well ahead of time) what to expect. You see we had a rather obvious and continuous move to the downside for a long period of time measured in hours over the course of the day. What that means is that traders were riding a rather obvious small trend to the downside. The larger ones building positions and entering sells as the price continued to move down. This building of short orders is what the big traders need to be profitable. Any time you have high volatility like the opening ranges it is nothing more than an opportunity for the market makers and liquidity providers to take advantage of unsuspecting traders. Just massive stop runs one way or the other.
So today was relatively easy to see. This sustained move to the downside is precisely what I was looking for before the news. Even if the news printed badly (which it did) price was more likely to move up catching the trend riders and shaking them out plus the traders that swore price would move down the minute the news printed negative.
There were other signs ahead of time also. Like the volume triangle building from inside to out up from the bottom of the move. That tells you a potential reversal (which happens about 80% of the time when you see this) will occur. Checking your larger time frame you want to know which volume area is controlling price during the day. You have heard me talk about this before. Look for it and KNOW it. Remember these sharks are on both sides of the market right. You want to be on the one that is the one they are using to set up the herd.
Check out the charts below and you will see how to make 30 ticks or more in a heart beat. Obviously if you over leverage it will be you who they come after.
Now today's oil spike and many of them for that matter are somewhat predictable. I knew ahead to time (and well ahead of time) what to expect. You see we had a rather obvious and continuous move to the downside for a long period of time measured in hours over the course of the day. What that means is that traders were riding a rather obvious small trend to the downside. The larger ones building positions and entering sells as the price continued to move down. This building of short orders is what the big traders need to be profitable. Any time you have high volatility like the opening ranges it is nothing more than an opportunity for the market makers and liquidity providers to take advantage of unsuspecting traders. Just massive stop runs one way or the other.
So today was relatively easy to see. This sustained move to the downside is precisely what I was looking for before the news. Even if the news printed badly (which it did) price was more likely to move up catching the trend riders and shaking them out plus the traders that swore price would move down the minute the news printed negative.
There were other signs ahead of time also. Like the volume triangle building from inside to out up from the bottom of the move. That tells you a potential reversal (which happens about 80% of the time when you see this) will occur. Checking your larger time frame you want to know which volume area is controlling price during the day. You have heard me talk about this before. Look for it and KNOW it. Remember these sharks are on both sides of the market right. You want to be on the one that is the one they are using to set up the herd.
Check out the charts below and you will see how to make 30 ticks or more in a heart beat. Obviously if you over leverage it will be you who they come after.
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