The Everything Bubble and Should You Worry....
The very first question that is asked in most cases is, "is there an everything bubble"?
My quick answer is "No".
In light of all the central bank printing one would easily conclude that I am full of it and simply skip through the rest of this article and continue on with your own view that at some point this gigantic bubble will eventually burst and all hell will break loose.
That would be a colossal mistake on your behalf as you might miss out on some of the best market moves the world has ever seen.
One of the classical mistakes of present economists is that they have a tendency to look at historical data as a way of predicting the future. You simply have to beg the question that if this way of conducting experimentation was any good at all we would never have or never would have had any crisis situations ever. Simply put these theorists would have seen it coming and they would have either advised central banks what action to take to ward it off or they would have been able to cue the masses that collapse was inevitable and to protect their portfolio's. However the factual reality is "no one has really ever been able to pin point exactly when these black swan events will happen with any sort of regularity".
I say factual because if this were the case everyone would be happy and ready to retire extremely wealthy. We know that this is NOT the case and never has been.
Has digital money found its way into every asset class.
Well yes it has. However what is to say that it can't go on forever versus reaching a point of collapse. The truth is it has never been tried or done before.
As "Keynes" once said how can you not be wealthier if you have more money.
He was correct this way.
Paul Krugman's theory is that central banks are not doing enough and once again he might be right. So far there is no proof that he is wrong.
We have to look at the alternative to know that money printing is not necessarily as bad as most of the pundits think. In the past (say the crash of 1929 which is what most people like to compare this to which I might add is wrong) central banks did very little and the result was decades of deflation and stagflation resulting in terrible strife and hardship for the common man. One might have even said it was the precurser to the second world war. No one alive today can tell you what that was like. People often think that it is no big deal and simply let the free markets dictate a deflationary spiral. They are clearly wrong. That is like saying eating a box of nails is not that bad for you.
The idea that central banks are attempting is to ward off deflation and ignite at least a little bit of core inflation. When is enough too much?
Simply put, no one knows. It could collapse or it might not for decades to follow if it ever does.
Sitting on the sidelines is a fools errand. It does nothing. You have one lifetime that much we know. Lost opportunity can be painful and last for a long time. Sometimes a life time.
In the coming months we should see the dollar start to fall and this will trigger a commodity rise. New technologies are being created at break neck speed and this too will trickle down to the average man. When we consider that we live now in a time where things have never been so good for the average fellow we can take faith that the future indeed looks bright.
Yes money has found its way into assets around the world. Yes there has been trillions of dollars of new wealth created out of thin air. Yes it can be inflationary. Yes the bond bubble could burst along with all the other bubbles.
Do I think it is either inevitable or probable.
No.
What I do suggest is capitalizing on all opportunities that come your way. Learn to give a little more and take a little less and for goodness sake stop worrying about something you nor anyone else has any control over. I will know it when I see it if such an event is underway just as I saw the collapse in oil, stocks and currencies. At the moment no signs exist whatsoever so stop listening to the everything bubble deflationists. Clearly they have been wrong the past ten years and there is nothing to say they won't be wrong for another ten or longer.
Cheers!
My quick answer is "No".
In light of all the central bank printing one would easily conclude that I am full of it and simply skip through the rest of this article and continue on with your own view that at some point this gigantic bubble will eventually burst and all hell will break loose.
That would be a colossal mistake on your behalf as you might miss out on some of the best market moves the world has ever seen.
One of the classical mistakes of present economists is that they have a tendency to look at historical data as a way of predicting the future. You simply have to beg the question that if this way of conducting experimentation was any good at all we would never have or never would have had any crisis situations ever. Simply put these theorists would have seen it coming and they would have either advised central banks what action to take to ward it off or they would have been able to cue the masses that collapse was inevitable and to protect their portfolio's. However the factual reality is "no one has really ever been able to pin point exactly when these black swan events will happen with any sort of regularity".
I say factual because if this were the case everyone would be happy and ready to retire extremely wealthy. We know that this is NOT the case and never has been.
Has digital money found its way into every asset class.
Well yes it has. However what is to say that it can't go on forever versus reaching a point of collapse. The truth is it has never been tried or done before.
As "Keynes" once said how can you not be wealthier if you have more money.
He was correct this way.
Paul Krugman's theory is that central banks are not doing enough and once again he might be right. So far there is no proof that he is wrong.
We have to look at the alternative to know that money printing is not necessarily as bad as most of the pundits think. In the past (say the crash of 1929 which is what most people like to compare this to which I might add is wrong) central banks did very little and the result was decades of deflation and stagflation resulting in terrible strife and hardship for the common man. One might have even said it was the precurser to the second world war. No one alive today can tell you what that was like. People often think that it is no big deal and simply let the free markets dictate a deflationary spiral. They are clearly wrong. That is like saying eating a box of nails is not that bad for you.
The idea that central banks are attempting is to ward off deflation and ignite at least a little bit of core inflation. When is enough too much?
Simply put, no one knows. It could collapse or it might not for decades to follow if it ever does.
Sitting on the sidelines is a fools errand. It does nothing. You have one lifetime that much we know. Lost opportunity can be painful and last for a long time. Sometimes a life time.
In the coming months we should see the dollar start to fall and this will trigger a commodity rise. New technologies are being created at break neck speed and this too will trickle down to the average man. When we consider that we live now in a time where things have never been so good for the average fellow we can take faith that the future indeed looks bright.
Yes money has found its way into assets around the world. Yes there has been trillions of dollars of new wealth created out of thin air. Yes it can be inflationary. Yes the bond bubble could burst along with all the other bubbles.
Do I think it is either inevitable or probable.
No.
What I do suggest is capitalizing on all opportunities that come your way. Learn to give a little more and take a little less and for goodness sake stop worrying about something you nor anyone else has any control over. I will know it when I see it if such an event is underway just as I saw the collapse in oil, stocks and currencies. At the moment no signs exist whatsoever so stop listening to the everything bubble deflationists. Clearly they have been wrong the past ten years and there is nothing to say they won't be wrong for another ten or longer.
Cheers!
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