Quick Peek at 2018 Markets. What I Think....
I usually reserve this for the later part of 2017 around new years but I think now is as good a time as any to give you a short peek at what I think is going to happen during the year. Keep in mind that you are looking at weekly charts. This could take months to unfold in earnest.
You also need to keep in mind that this is cyclical so take that with a grain of salt too. Cycles are very difficult to predict and very difficult to time accurately.
The cycle is of course the Dollar. The pundits might actually be right on this one although keep in mind that the Dollar could still make new highs in the new year. You will know once it gets to around 96 to 97 area if that is going to take place or not. The Dollar is in a sideways to lower trajectory and has been for about two years. The Dollar moves in 7-10 year cycles to other currencies at the moment. It is nearing the end of its bullish 10 year cycle where it could move substantially lower, perhaps being replaced by a new form of currency given the block chain technology. NO I am not talking about Bitcoin or that bubble. So get that out of your head now.
This fellow gives a pretty good insight to the Dollar. As good as what I would show you so check it out here. What he perhaps fails to notice is the volume based triangle at the top of a move usually signifies a higher move at some point. Not a lower move. So keep that in mind. If the Dollar moves higher then all the projections below are off the table. It is that simple.
Here is the link https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/Wi6aUbuA-dollar-crash-stockmarket-crash/
(crash is an abrupt and misused word so don't take it to heart).
You can see that IF (and it is IF) the Dollar begins to descend lower it might be powerful and therefor a strong move up by gold may be possible if the Dollar is falling hard. That is the only scenario that the precious metal has a chance to rally hard. You can see how I think it will happen. A small move down followed by a strong move up (if the Dollar begins to fall from the 96-97 area) If it goes on to move to the 99 or higher you better not be long gold. Entry might be around the 1180 area or slightly lower.
There is talk of course of the Fed removing a lot of stimulus and rinsing its balance sheet. Ok I buy that as it is already doing that. The delayed effect should begin to take place early in the year around March where stock indexes should correct. It could happen as early as January as I think they have made their highs for the next year or two. If they correct (and that is all it is) it could happen any time now. I look to the Neikki 225 to tell me what the story really is. The pattern that has unfolded over the past year or two is one that usually falls back to its starting point which you can see on the chart. If that is the case the USD/YEN will fall with it. Expect a 95 YEN or lower. As a result of most of the index's being correlated because of all the cheap money in carry trades expect the DAX, DOW, SP and NASDAQ to follow suit. NOT CRASH but correct. They are at extremes now and have not corrected in a number of years. A good correction is healthy and that is what we can expect in my view. So you might wish to lock in your profits or have a stop loss in place to capture profits if you are a trader or an investor. I do and so should you. Where? A break down to 21400 in the Neikki should be sufficient. Everyone is all in at the moment and this is reckless. Don't be part of the herd. Have a stop in mind. Please. You will thank me later.
WTI is our next stop. I see a fall or a correction early on if the Dollar rallies to 97. Then a turn around and perhaps a move to 60 or slightly better. (Keep in mind if the Dollar rallies we will see Oil stay where it has been the past three years) With the Dollar falling it could signify a rally in commodities as this is when they do rally. Corn, wheat, soya beans, sugar, copper, palladium, silver, gold, oil and don't forget Lithium could all rally strongly. If they get out of hand this is where an imminent crash will occur because the cost of living will get too expensive for people to live. This is where we could have serious problems if we get to a point like this where we were back in 2007. Personally I doubt it. So don't worry.
Currencies may rally a bit. Not a lot but a bit if the Dollar falls. They are all artificially controlled at the moment so don't look for any big rallies as economies around the world can't handle it.
You can see where I think the 10 year which is the most liquid Bond is going. Lower or higher depending on what chart you are reading. Lower rates for sure. On my chart lower rates are a higher move. So keep that in mind.
So here are your charts.
You also need to keep in mind that this is cyclical so take that with a grain of salt too. Cycles are very difficult to predict and very difficult to time accurately.
The cycle is of course the Dollar. The pundits might actually be right on this one although keep in mind that the Dollar could still make new highs in the new year. You will know once it gets to around 96 to 97 area if that is going to take place or not. The Dollar is in a sideways to lower trajectory and has been for about two years. The Dollar moves in 7-10 year cycles to other currencies at the moment. It is nearing the end of its bullish 10 year cycle where it could move substantially lower, perhaps being replaced by a new form of currency given the block chain technology. NO I am not talking about Bitcoin or that bubble. So get that out of your head now.
This fellow gives a pretty good insight to the Dollar. As good as what I would show you so check it out here. What he perhaps fails to notice is the volume based triangle at the top of a move usually signifies a higher move at some point. Not a lower move. So keep that in mind. If the Dollar moves higher then all the projections below are off the table. It is that simple.
Here is the link https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/Wi6aUbuA-dollar-crash-stockmarket-crash/
(crash is an abrupt and misused word so don't take it to heart).
You can see that IF (and it is IF) the Dollar begins to descend lower it might be powerful and therefor a strong move up by gold may be possible if the Dollar is falling hard. That is the only scenario that the precious metal has a chance to rally hard. You can see how I think it will happen. A small move down followed by a strong move up (if the Dollar begins to fall from the 96-97 area) If it goes on to move to the 99 or higher you better not be long gold. Entry might be around the 1180 area or slightly lower.
There is talk of course of the Fed removing a lot of stimulus and rinsing its balance sheet. Ok I buy that as it is already doing that. The delayed effect should begin to take place early in the year around March where stock indexes should correct. It could happen as early as January as I think they have made their highs for the next year or two. If they correct (and that is all it is) it could happen any time now. I look to the Neikki 225 to tell me what the story really is. The pattern that has unfolded over the past year or two is one that usually falls back to its starting point which you can see on the chart. If that is the case the USD/YEN will fall with it. Expect a 95 YEN or lower. As a result of most of the index's being correlated because of all the cheap money in carry trades expect the DAX, DOW, SP and NASDAQ to follow suit. NOT CRASH but correct. They are at extremes now and have not corrected in a number of years. A good correction is healthy and that is what we can expect in my view. So you might wish to lock in your profits or have a stop loss in place to capture profits if you are a trader or an investor. I do and so should you. Where? A break down to 21400 in the Neikki should be sufficient. Everyone is all in at the moment and this is reckless. Don't be part of the herd. Have a stop in mind. Please. You will thank me later.
WTI is our next stop. I see a fall or a correction early on if the Dollar rallies to 97. Then a turn around and perhaps a move to 60 or slightly better. (Keep in mind if the Dollar rallies we will see Oil stay where it has been the past three years) With the Dollar falling it could signify a rally in commodities as this is when they do rally. Corn, wheat, soya beans, sugar, copper, palladium, silver, gold, oil and don't forget Lithium could all rally strongly. If they get out of hand this is where an imminent crash will occur because the cost of living will get too expensive for people to live. This is where we could have serious problems if we get to a point like this where we were back in 2007. Personally I doubt it. So don't worry.
Currencies may rally a bit. Not a lot but a bit if the Dollar falls. They are all artificially controlled at the moment so don't look for any big rallies as economies around the world can't handle it.
You can see where I think the 10 year which is the most liquid Bond is going. Lower or higher depending on what chart you are reading. Lower rates for sure. On my chart lower rates are a higher move. So keep that in mind.
So here are your charts.
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